Mineral Resources Development, Uncertainties Evaluation Method And Its Application

Mineral resources are the important foundation in the exploitation of national economy. The exploitation of mineral resources is a synthetic evaluation system refers to economy, resources, environment, and social factors, etc. Population, resources, and environment are the most severe problems in the world at present, which threats the survival and exploitation of human beings in the future. Therefore, Synthetic evaluation on exploitation of mineral resources has been widely attended by domestic and overseas governments.There are many uncertain factors in the exploitation of the sources, the value and its investment of exploitation project are affected directly or indirectly because of many uncertainties, which present serious risks to project exploitation in the means of momentous business decision-making of corporation. Thus, how to determine the feasibility of mining exploitation projects, take evaluation on it, and reduce project risks have become the increasingly concerned topic by enterprise managers and related technology workers. In this paper, the feasibility of exploitation of mineral resources was ascertained by uncertainty analysis base on statistics of fuzzy set values.The main research conclusions and production of the dissertation are summarized as follows:1. On the basis of analysis on traditional resources exploitation theory and methods, the theory of multi-attribute decision making and application used by uncertainty analyses in exploration and evaluation on mineral resources were discussed. Constructing principles of index system of synthetic evaluation on mineral resources were put forward.2. Index system of synthetic evaluation on mineral resources was built. Uncertainty analyses mathematical model and synthetic evaluation system of mineral resources were established by using fuzzy set values.3. Results of economic evaluation on mineral resources exploration were reflected by economic indicators. According to fuzzy statistics theory, uncertainty parameters were expressed by convex function. Through expectations and relevant reliability, critical risk and greatest risks, uncertainties of mineral resources development were analyzed quantitatively.4. Based on examples, changes of uncertainty factors were used for analysis and calculation of influencing extent of mineral resources investment benefit. Interrelated values were obtained. According to evaluation value, influencing of uncertainty factors to economy benefit could be judged. A great resistance to shock of some unforeseen political risk for project investment could be forecasted. Thereby, reliability and stability of project investment could be demonstrated, for which determining to feasibility of mineral resources development investment.