Season Model In The International Dry Bulk Freight Rates Fluctuations In The Study

International dry-bulk shipping market full of competitiveness and change is an important part of international shipping market. Before mostly the research regarding this market to the BDI index Concentrate in the short-term forecast stratification plane, also mostly relies on some theory experiences to the market trend. Along with the dynamic tendency research of the bulk cargo market transportation goes thorough, the short-term market forecast already cannot satisfy the ship-owners, they hope further excavated some long-term undulation rules in the transportation market. Therefore, this article explores to use the season model in the finance study to research the seasonal long-term undulation rule existing in the International dry-bulk shipping market, which promotes the research from qualitative investigation to the quantitative investigation altitude, so the ship-owners can make right policy when they are buying and selling the ships,investing and selecting the route.This article first begins from the study of season model in the finance, combining with the reality of the bulk cargo transportation charges market dynamic tendency. Through seeking the seasonal undulation representation which exists, we have carried on the analysis to the season model studying method related serviceability, and we prove that the season model is suitable to the international bulk cargo transportation charges dynamic tendency.In the research, this article strengthened the recognition of the bulk cargo transportation charges seasonal characteristic undulation rule. With the aid of some measurement software, we have analyzed the long-term characteristic, seasonal and the periodic undulation rule in the international bulk cargo transportation charges market. Then we point out that the seasonal undulation rule is one kind of inherent rule in the charges dynamic tendency.This article also established the transportation charges season parameter examination model to confirm the transportation charges seasonal characteristic undulation rule. We have chosen three kinds of basically dry bulk carriers in spot rates, 1-year time-charter rates and 3-year time-charter rates, collect the transportation charges long-term monthly data from 1990.01 to 2006.11 to observe. Through examining the seasonal unit roots with the method of HEGY, it can be argued that the existence of stochastic seasonality is rejected for all sub-markets in the dry bulk sector for the period 1990-2006. Having rejected the existence of stochastic seasonality, the deterministic seasonal variations in each series is measured by one order difference semi-logarithm trend model. We have used the Eviews 5.0 to measure this variations and found that, in the remarkable month of every year the transportation charges can appear the obvious rise or fall the tendency, and we also have figured out its peak-to-peak value basically maintains in a stable level. In order to guarantee the actual effect of the model operation, this article also compares the actual transportation charges and the forecast value which obtains through the model from 2006.06 to 2007.04 to confirm the accuracy of the seasonal model. Finally in this foundation, we have further forecasted the transportation charges data of remarkable month with seasonal influence.Through the demonstration, the season model and its each kind of parameter composition examination model is a reliable method to the long-term transportation charges undulation tendency forecasting of International dry-bulk shipping market. The forecasting result can provide the more scientific policy-making basis to the general ship-owners when they choose the market investment opportunity and which chartering contract they should take.