Financial Distress Of Listed Companies In China To Study

With the rapid growth of Chinese stock market, financial states of listed companies are concerned more and more by their stakeholders such as shareholders, creditors and government. Therefore it is very significant to carry out effective advance warning for financial states of listed companies.Based on the mature experiences domestic and abroad, this paper aims to the problems existing in the recent researches on corporate financial early-warning models home and abroad and selects 82 listed machinery companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets as estimated samples (among which 41 are the companies that have financial crises) and 34 listed machinery companies as checked samples to build an financial crise forecast model based on their accounting and governance information by using factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis as the main modeling methods. The total distinguishing rate of the model for financial states of listed companies in next three years achieves 98.8%, 90.2% and 80.5% respectively, furthermore its actual forecast accuracy achieves 97.1%, 91.2%and 73.5% respectively. Through contrasting and testing of different methods, we discover that the active model established in this study has relatively higher accuracy to the forecast of the long-term financial states of listed companies and governance structure of a company imposes a marked impact on its accounting security. We can obtain that the poor corporate governance attributes to its financial crise and governance information of a company can not be veiled by its accounting informafion.