Financial Early Warning Systems In Commercial Bank Credit Risk Management

In recent years, the yellow alert system of credit risk has grown up in foreign commercial bank, but it's not very perfect in our country due to many reasons, and the research in this field is very poor. At the end of this year, the foreign banks will be treated as coequality members in China ,they will give the chance to create an relationship of the domestic commercial banks with the Chinese business institute of the large foreign commercial bank, but in the meantime ,the Chinese bank will face heavy challenge from the large foreign banks .At present, enterprise loan is one of the most important loan in commercial bank, and it is a very close relationship with the profit margin of commercial bank. Once the enterprise occur financial crisis, the enterprise loan must be bad debts, so the bank will face on the big risk of credit. Most bank managers have realized the importance of the financial status of the loan enterprise, they hope to dig the information of decision in large amount of finance report forms and guidelines, but due to the system of financial is more comprehensive, and the information is not complete , the bank managers can't make decision at once .How to pick up the correct quantitative and qualitative financial guideline in the large amount of the system , and guide the direction of loan is the aim of this article.Due to the different profit, it is particularity that commercial bank being way of creditor looks on financial of enterprise. It's different to common investor or enterprise manager. In a general way , the enterprise manager thinks a lot in point of view of the solvency in cash flow, but the investors and bank attend on the solvency in merchandise, but along with the change of economic circumstance, Chinese commercial bank think much of the solvency in cash flow.In this article, we start with the actuality of the commercial bank's yellow alert, analyse the development of commercial bank's yellow alert system ,and point out the existent problems and resolvent,and makes the particular explanation to current financial yellow alert system, finally, we research the necessary and feasibility to set up credit yellow alert in commercial bank, and table a proposal that analyse the enterprise financial yellow alert based on the advantage experience of foreign commercial bank and compositive factors. So make the sort of twelve distinctions of loan risk based on five distinctions, it must be guided by the commercial bank's risk management.This article's innovation are: 1)It points out the commercial bank credit yellow alert based on enterprise finanial yellow alert.2)It swings with comprehensive factors based on quantitative analysis.3)It gives a proposal the sort of twelve instead of the sort of five, and makes detailed explanation for every distinction.4)this maneuverability of the system is very good , and analysis methods is scientific.For the system of credit analysis of this article, the upper research are:1)To ensure reasonable forecast time, to pledge the result pertinence and validity;2)To collect correlative data, and set up the model of yellow alert based on scale, zone and industry;3)To innovate the methods of stat, to set up the financial yellow alert based on modern financial theory etc.