Study On Sd Simulation Prediction Method Of China's Economic

Simulating prediction the economic development of a country is the traditional area of development of the modern economics, and the scientific field which long to be concerned and explore. Different research purposes need different modes. This paper aimed to attempts to establish a national economic dynamics model of quantitative research system, which study the trend of the national economy development in 10 years or so, and found the possible conflict problems of the trend changes.Firstly, this paper analyzed the economic index set of national economic system around the main economic index, GDP. In order to make certain the interrelationship of various factors in economic system, with ISM we obtained the multilevel hierarchic structure model of national economy system statistical index collection.Secondly, base on the China's economic system interpretative structural model established above, this paper, according to the research purposes, added or deleted the index sets, and painted SD causality diagram of national economic, then mapped the flowchart according to the causality diagram, established dynamic model system of national economic, and proceeded simulation prediction to main economic indicators of our country economic system from 2000 to 2008 with 2000 as the base year. Simulation error was controled basicly within 5%.Then, simulated prediction trend and analyzed the results of the development of our economic from 2009 to 2020 with the system dynamics model established. The problems in the process of development of our country mainly are: the employment situation of the three industry needs to be further improved, the labor productivity and internal structure of tertiary industry needs to be optimized; our education development investment is insufficient, the proportion of financal expenditure of education in GDP requires great efforts to increase; The income gap between urban and rural residents in China will further increase.Finally, according to the conclusion analyzed gave some countermeasures and suggestions about the development of economic in our country.