Construction Of Infrastructure Project Financing, Risk Management Based On System Dynamics Research

Infrastructure construction is the important component in the national economic and social development, Along with the rapid development of our country urbanization, Infrastructure construction relatively insufficient contradiction is becoming more and more serious, seriously restricted the economic development of China. The most directly infrastructure construction of restricting factors is insufficient funds. Project finance, as a suitable infrastructure construction of new financing,It can be a very good solution to the insufficient funds in the infrastructure construction. However, project financing has the characteristics such as complex structure,risk factors, Therefore strengthen project financing risk management is particularly important.System Dynamics, which was put forward by Dr. Forrester in Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is a computer simulation technology. Project financing risk management is a complex dynamic system, there exists kinds of information feedback in the system. It shows up the characteristic of dynamic nature, complexity and multiple feedbacks. So it is suitable for applying system dynamic method.Based on combining the features of infrastructure project financing risk management and its application in our country, this thesis applied system dynamics, according to the basic steps in risk management, which includes risk identification, risk assessment, risk response and risk control. then do the research on infrastructure project financing risk management.(1)Risk identification. During the risk identification, Constructing feedback graph model of project financing risk identification, which based on the system dynamic. Identify the reasons which caused the risk and the consequences caused by the risk.(2) Risk assessment. Construct risk flowcharts and evaluate the risks based on the risk identification feedback loop, then take a infrastructure construction project finance as a example., make some empirical analysis.as the data is not comprehensive and other problems, the operation results did not reach the expected purpose. But through the model the author proves the feasibility of the application in the risk estimation and evaluation.(3) Risk response and control. According to the results of the risk evaluation, we can provide the solutions to solve the risk,then put the thought into the model, Observe the effect of changes, Further improvement of the flow chart model, change it to the risk control model.