China's Real Estate Market Volatility And Macroeconomic Development Of The Relationship Between Empirical Research

Since the beginning of 1998, because of the currency reform of the housing system, China's real estate industry has undergone an unprecedented development, and in recent years China's rapid economic development, the deepening reform of housing system and the rapid process of urbanization have given the development of real estate industry a lasting impetus.The real estate industry is the leading industry of the national economy, and is inextricably linked to the development of national economy.The fluctuations of real estate market have a significant impact on the macroeconomy.Therefore, the research of the impact of the volatility of the real estate market on the develepment of macroeconomy and proposing specific policy recommendations have important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the theory analysis of the mechanism of interaction between the real estate fluctuations and the macroeconomy and macroeconomic data on the real estate market in recent years, this paper make a qualitative analysis of the relationship between the development of real easte industry and macroeconomic performance and a empirical analysis of linkage between the development of real easte industry and macroeconomic performance, including the relationship of the real estate investment volatility and economic growth and the relationship of real estate price fluctuations and inflation.Through empirical analysis we find the real estate investment and economic growth are in the sense of mutual granger causality, the real estate investment has positive impact on GDP growth,the real estate investment and the GDP growth exist the long-term stability co-integration relationship, which indicates that the real estate investment cannot be separated from the current national economic development. And China's real estate prices and inflation are also in the sense of mutual granger causality. The real estate price has a long-term stable positive influence on the inflation, and the changes of real estate market price level has an important indication role for the future inflation forecast. Finally,on the basis of empirical analysis conclusion,this paper has propsed some targeted policy suggestions.