The Risk Measurement Of China’s Real Estate Industry And Its Impact On Macroeconomy

China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly since the housing marketization reform in 1998.However,potential problems caused by the booming real estate industry shouldn’t be ignored and the global financial crisis in 2008 caused by the United States subprime mortgage crisis is the best example.As the economy has entered the stage of the new normal,China needs a stable real estate market during the transition period.The 19 th CPC National Congress report proposes that the house is used for living instead of speculating and makes stricter requirements for real estate regulation.Therefore,studies on the risk situation of China’s real estate industry and its Impact on macroeconomy have the theoretical and realistic significance.Firstly,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the real estate industry on macroeconomy in theory.Secondly,in order to reflect the overall risk of China’s real estate industry,this paper constructs three kinds of comprehensive housing risk indices with principal component analysis from the view of absolute risk,bubble risk and real estate companies’ risk.This paper finds that the trend of real estate industry’s risk is ahead of macroeconomic trend before 2014,but the relativity gradually disappears after 2014.Thirdly,this paper studies the risk’s impact on macroeconomy qualitatively and quantitatively with quantile regression and vector autoregressive model.The empirical results show that this impact is asymmetric and the risk of China’s real estate industry achieves a higher explanatory power on the positive shock to macroeconomy,but not on the negative shock.The risk of real estate industry promotes the macroeconomy in the short term,but will block up the economic development in the long run.Specifically,when the comprehensive bubble risk index constructed in this paper increases by one unit,GDP growth rate will decrease by 0.6 percentage point.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations based on the real situation of China’s real estate industry and the research results of this paper.