Small Town Traffic Trip Generation Forecasting Issues Related To Research

With the guidance of "small town, big strategy" macroscopic policy in our country, people attach the sufficient importance to the small town planning and building. With the rapid development of the small town's scale and number, the chief problem of development in the small town is to plan the small town scientifically and logically, and found theory and technique of the small town planning and building. With the rapid of citification, the development of the small town is represented by continuous rapid development of economy, rapid development of scale and level of land use, unparalleled traffic demand, but the traffic establishment becomes obvious lag which results in more and more serious traffic problems. Traffic planning on the basis of general town planning is an effective measure in solving traffic problems in small towns. Traffic demand forecasting is the basis of traffic planning technique system, and traffic trip generation forecasting is the key point of traffic demand prediction using "four steps" and its precision directly influences the prediction results in the following steps.This dissertation's intention is to establish the foundation of small town traffic planning technique system by researching trip generation forecasting in small town. Firstly, with analysis of social economy and traffic characteristics of small town, a trip generation forecasting method is made to fit to the characteristic of small town, that is to make a model with making a connection between social economy activity and traffic trip on the base of researching social economy system, to forecast the freight and passenger trip in small town. On the precondition of the decision of the prediction technique, the research on make models is implemented by two phases. The first phase, in the researching of social economy activity system, the population, the use of land, the every industry production value etc which influence freight and passenger traffic demand is been forecasted. The second phase, the small town traffic trip generation is predicted, according to the difference of traffic trip generation mechanism between freight and passenger, freight and passenger traffic trip generation is predicted separately by using passenger traffic trip generation model with analysis of population -the land use pattern modality and every industry freight traffic trip generation model with analysis of gray system. In the end of the dissertation indicate that the researching theory has some value of application by the example of Shenzhen Shiyan traffic trip generation forecasting.