Short-term Power Load Forecasting Method And System Design

Electrical load forecasting has important function in programming and dispatching department of power system. Short-term load forecasting, which major function is to forecast future power load several hours or several days later, is the main part of the energy management system(EMS). Meanwhile, It is important to the security and economical operation in modern power systems. Gone with the power plant walking towards to the power market, load forecasting precision standard has become more and more strict.Because power load is influenced by multiple factors, such as politics, climate, self-status of the power load and so on, short-term load forecasting is a complex employment. Firstly, this paper analyses constitutes of the electrical load, and then introduces the basic method for short-term load forecasting at home and abroad. On the basis of these theories, this paper analyses load data in nearly one year of Jiaxing, and then make emphases on the method of preprocessing the history load data, the selection of the similar day and the applying of the gray model in short-term load forecasting . At last, this paper shows the designing procedure of the power short-term load forecasting system and then proved the validity of the gray model method.