The Realization Of Short Term Load Forecasting For Power System Based On Load Characteristic

Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is one of the most important contents of running and dispatching power system. and one important part of Energy Management System. It is the premise and basic of safe, economic and reliable operation of power system. The forecasting precision will affect the economic benefit of power system. To study the load characteristic, the analysis theory and forecasting arithmetic and develop an efficient and practicable load forecasting system is becoming a very important issue currently. The paper mainly studies load-analysis, forecasting arithmetic and the design and development of the load forecasting system.The paper introduces the character of short-term load forecasting, and deeply analyzes the effect of temperature and rainfall to load. It introduces a way of dealing abnormal data using wavelet singularity detection theory and getting rid of burr employing curve smooth technology. This paper finds the similar day which is selected by joint mining with fuzzy classifier and gray correlation degree. According to the principia that the combination of better forecasting arithmetic will decrees the error, the paper uses a preference combined model based on virtual forecasting. To solve the problem that the long-term load will decrees the precision of the forecasting, according to the principia that the load is mainly effect by the temperature, the paper amends the long-term load from amending the different sect of the charge in one day. According to the comparability of special festival and weekend load, the paper uses a special holidays forecasting model based on similar weekend load, and amended by a property relation of the same special festival load to the corresponding similar weekend load in past years.Finally, the paper introduces a short-term load forecasting system which applies a structure of browser/server. the system consists of three function models, load data analysis, load forecasting, etc. The application in Hechi Guangxi grid has shown that the system is stable, convenient and accurate.