In The Field Of Maritime Security Analysis

With the damages caused by human errors getting more and more serious, human errors in the man-machine systems have become an important task in the theory study of safety science in the 21~st century. The key of controlling human errors is to know the underlying mechanism for making human errors, to find a model for the quantification of human reliability and therefore to provide a theoretical basis for controlling human errors and reducing risks caused by human actions. The human reliability theory basing on the above mechanism and model has been wildly used in many fields, especially in the nuclear industry. However, in the field of maritime transportation safety, the human reliability study is still to be carried out. Therefore, by making reference to a large quantity of research findings of human reliability theory done in other fields and by taking into consideration the features of maritime safety and the author's many years experiences in this feild, the thesis makes a systematic analysis of the human factors concerning the maritime safety in order to reduce the possibility of making human errors and, therefore, improve maritime safety.The origin of this thesis is a task from Shanghai Education Committee, which is to study the human factors in "evaluation of the safety techonology in shipping". Target for research is the seaman. The basic train of thoughts is as follows: Basing on the three steps i.e. the identification of risks, the evaluation of the risks and the proposals as the references for making decision, in safety system and employing the basic theory about human factors, the thesis identifies the main representations of the seaman's errors, analyzes the various factors influencing seaman's actions, evaluates the reliability of the seamen in both quality and quantity ways, finally finds out the foundamental causes leading to the seaman's errors and therefore offers the corresponding prevention measures.This thesis discusses the application of the reliability analysis thechnology to the evaluation of the officers' reliability of shipping vechiles, puts forward the practical skills of employing the maritime accident reports and the accidentstatistics as well as the experts' advice in evaluating the officers' reliability on duty, which fills up a technique vancacy in this field. The method could be applied not only to the further study of this topic but also to the analysis of the risks in the maritime field.The thesis has the following innovations:The thesis for the first time employs the theory about the reliability of human factors to systematically analyze the human factors in maritime safety, to identify the reprensentations of human errors in this field, to describe the whole process of the production of the seaman's errors, to induce and summarize the Key Performance Influence Factors (KPIF) of the seamen. In addition, the thesis sets up a mathmatic model for identifying the human Key Performance Influence Factors by using the principle component analysis.In the light of the deficiency in crew reliability assessment methods used by the shipping industry, this thesis attempts to propose fuzzy integrative judgment for crew-assessment which is based on considering the results of routine assessment and year-end assessment ? A typical example shows that the proposed method is effective and practical.