The Impact Of Climate Change On Hydrological Extreme Events Of The Laizhou Bay Region

TStudies on impacts of climate changes should be attached importance notonly to seasonal and monthly average changes but also to extremes changesbecause hydrologic extremes changes have more impacts on national economydevelopment and contingent calamity. More and more people have been interestedin impacts of climate changes on hydrologic extremes in recent years. But studieson stochastic models for daily runoff are scarce and the methods need furtherdevelopment at present.Water resource is sensitive to climate changes in Laizhou Bay Area, wherefloods and droughts are frequent and Countermeasures to prevent and reducefloods and droughts are very critical to the regional sustainable development.This study investigates impacts of climate changes due to CO2 doubling onhydrologic extremes in Mihe basin. Specific contents includes the following:1.Sketchy circumstances in Laizhou Bay Area.The habitat and social economic conditions in Laizhou Bay Area areintroduced which include geographical locality, features of topography, climateand hydrolog)~ etc.2.Analyzes climate changes in Laizhou Bay Area.Historical climate changes are introduced and recent climate changes areanalyzed based on data of temperature and precipitation in recent 40 years in thearea. Long-term series of regional temperature and precipitation data areestablished in order to predict future climate changes according to data fromhistorical climate record and up-to-date apparatus observation. At the same timethe detailed regional scenariO is drawn up based on the General Climate Models(GCMs).3.Stochastic model for daily runoff and its application.For the purpose of evaluating impacts of climate changes on hydrologicextremes, a stochastic model for daily runoff is developed which includes theVjeffects of monthly average change on both seasonal cycle and extremes.Denghuiping has applied this model to study impacts of climate changes onhydrologic extremes in Tuojiang basin which is located in moist region. So themodel is modified in order to fit for the Laizhou Bay Area which is located insemi-moist region.4.Impacts of climate changes on hydrologic extremes in Mihe basin.Based on the Stochastic model, the impact of climate changes on flood anddrought frequencies is studied in Mihe basin, Laizhou Bay Area making use ofdata of daily runoff in Ruizhuang station. At the same time the stochastic model isput to the test.5.Liable impacts of future climate changes (CO., doubling) on hydrologicextremes in Mihe basin.Applying the stochastic model, impacts of future climate changes (CO2doubling) on hydrologic extremes in Mihe basin are studied based on the, regionalscenario. The result shows that all kinds of drought events will be more serious inthe future in this region and at the same time the region has much chance ofserious floods.6.Countermeasures to prevent and reduce floods and droughts.In order to prevent and reduce floods and droughts and to exploit water~resources rationally, some suggestion is put forward according to the result of thestochastic model and the regional specific circumstances.