Rural Cause Of The Fire And Fire Loss Prediction Model

Research has shown that the number of fires in rural areas and losses are enormous for several years. The fires have a chance and randomness, however, submits to a statistical regulation when the investigation is based on the whole rural areas nationwide, subject to statistical laws, to predict the development trend of the fire. When a fire happened, it might be caused by several factors which were complicated and interacting. Found the main reason for fires in rural areas will help to control the occurrence and spread of fires. In order to provide some scientific conclusions of fire precaution and damage decrease. This paper studies the rural fire over the last decade of information, using mathematical and statistical methods, makes a scientific prediction about the future trend and the potential level of rural fire damage parameter.This article collects the rural fire loss data from 1997 to 2006, including the direct economic losses, casualties and fatalities. On the basis of these data, using Gray forecasting model, Modelling via time series, and Curve trend forecasting method to forecast Rural fire losses trends. The basic date is analyzed by Excel, MATLAB. Comparing the results of three forecasting methods to research out the most appropriate method. In addition, analysis the main reasons of fires in rural areas, and in this way, find out ways of improving the status of the rural fire countermeasures.This paper is divided into six parts. The chapter I is the introduction, which introduces the purpose and significance of the topics, the current status of rural fire protection of domestic and international, the main research content, sources of data, and presented structure and method of the paper. Chapter II focuses on the application of the three prediction methods, which are Gray forecasting model, Modelling via time series, and Curve trend forecasting method. Chapter III analyzes the rural fire damage status by contrasting against the data from 1997 to 2006. The use of statistical data on rural fire losses were predicted to find the most reasonable prediction method, and calculated the rural fire loss data from 2007 to 2010. Chapter IV analysis the reasons of rural fire. Chapter V put forward countermeasures and suggestions according to the cause of fires. Chapter VI summarizes the conclusions of the research, and prospects the future construction of the rural fire protection.The content of this paper can be summarized into four Parts. First, a comparison of three predictive models found that Gray dynamic theoretical model is the best method to predict the loss of rural fire situation and the development trend. Therefore, rural fire damage GM (1,1) gray predicted model is build up by using the grey theory. For the three Parameters:the grade of direct economical expense, the number of the death and the number of the casualty from 2007 to 2010. Second, by calculating the results can be seen that the loss of rural fires showed a downward trend in volatility. Third, fire causes were analyzed by divided the National Rural into three regions Fourth, according to the reasons for rural fires, prevention measures proposed for the future of disaster reduction in the vast rural areas and make practical recommendations.