Research On Establishment Of Vehicle Emission Inventory And Its Abatement Scenarios In Zhengzhou

Atmospheric compound pollution characterized by PM2 5 and O3 has posed a serious threat to the air quality in recent years. With the development of economy, China’s vehicle number grows rapidly. Vehicle emission has become a major source of PM2.5 and O3 in urban. On this occasion, it is necessary to study vehicle pollution characteristics, to estimate the distribution of the emissions and to assess air pollutant emissions from vehicles under different control strategies. Zhengzhou, which is the central city of Central Plains Economic Region, is selected as our study city, and has a huge traffic demand.Vehicle emissions were calculated by revised vehicle emission factors, vehicle activity data and vehicle population. In 2012, emissions of CO, HC, NOx and PM were 54.7×104, 6.2×104, 14.0×104 and 1.4×104 tons, respectively. The main source of CO and HC was light-duty vehicle and the main source of NOx and PM was heavy-duty vehicle. The National Ⅰ and pre-National Ⅰ vehicles made a great contribution to the total emissions of CO, HC, NOx and PM.According to the total emissions of 2012, Zhengzhou urban area emissions could be calculated. Combined with Geographic Information System data and traffic flows, the grid-based emission inventory of Zhengzhou urban area was established which showed that the distribution of vehicle emissions in Zhengzhou’s urban area was not uniform. The emissions were greater in urban core-areas, ring roads and highways.Vehicle number in 2013-2017 was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model. Then this paper designed three kinds of control scenarios, compared with the “Business as usual”(BAU) scenario to assess the emission reduction measures. Until 2017, vehicle ownership in Zhengzhou would be more than 4 million. In the “raising fuel standards”(RFS) scenario, the difference of reduction ability was not obvious over the next years and the CO, HC, NOx and PM emissions in 2017 would be abated by 8.8%, 3.5%, 0.4% and 1.9%, respectively. In the “eliminate substandard vehicles”(ESV) scenario, the reduction rate decreased significantly with the decline of the number of substandard vehicles, and the CO, HC, NOx and PM emissions in 2017 would be decreased by 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.5% and 2.3%, respectively. In “alternative energy replacement”(AER) scenario, we assumed that alternative energy vehicles of new heavy buses, light buses and city buses accounted for 10%, 30% and 100% from 2013-2017, respectively. AER scenario would be the most potential, the reducing rate of CO, HC, NOx and PM would be 3.2%, 3.3%, 2.2% and 2.8% in 2017, respectively.