Research On The Crisis Warning Mechanism And Evaluation System Of Chinese Trade Enterprise

With the accelerating process of economic globalization, China'economy is closely integrated with the world economy. Also foreign trade has become a major driving force stimulating national economic growth. Foreign trade enterprises are the main body of China's foreign trade. When the country's foreign trade operation rights is opening and a growing number of small and medium enterprises join into the field of foreign trade, foreign trade enterprises play a increasingly prominent role in the national economy. But in recent years, due to dramatic changes in internal and external environment, many foreign trade enterprises'operation have become so difficult, even some cannot stand to close down because of the crisis hit .In particular, financial crisis caused by US supreme crisis has gradually deepened and spread to Europe, the emerging market countries and the vast majority of developing countries, and transformed into a global financial crisis, which has seriously hit the U.S. real economy , resulted in the global economic slowdown and heavily affected China's foreign trade enterprises. Under the influence of the financial crisis, the state foreign currency reserve assets shrink, the market demand slows down and exports decline, economic growth and fiscal revenue come down, foreign trade business become difficult, consumer confidence lose, domestic employment pressure is up, and so on. Therefore, it will be a very urgent task for the foreign trade enterprises to get rid of the threat of crisis, to reduce the damage caused by the crisis, to review their conditions and summarize the lessons.Based on the theory of the crisis and corporate crisis, the paper explains the connotation and extension of enterprise crisis; review of research on the crisis management and the crisis early warning and evaluation methods at home and abroad, summarizes the crisis management theories in brief and proposes the development trends of the enterprise's crisis management. By the application of modern risk management theories and methods, the paper analyses the crisis which China's foreign trade enterprises are facing now ,studies the China's foreign trade enterprise crisis'early-warning mechanism on the basis of the relevant research at home and abroad ,builds the Early-Warning indictor system and the early warning mode .the paper Uses the fuzzy evaluation method ,"Z-SCORE"models and some practical cases to evaluate the accuracy of the crisis early-warning models. Also based on results of the evaluation of the crisis management, we supply the crisis'level and propose appropriate management strategies. The paper puts forward the decision reference to China's foreign trade enterprises to respond to crises, and to promptly adjust business strategy and product structure, to exploit the global market, and to improve the capabilities enterprise crisis'management and business ability to resist risks.