The Dynamic Analysis And Evaluation By Agricultural Comprshensive Production Capacity In XinJiang

Agricultural comprehensive production capacity is an important index of comprehensive national strength, and reflects the agriculture total production level of a country or regions. In recent decades, the contradiction between the world's population continuous growth and the slow growth in grain output become more prominent, the contradiction become more acute among population, land, environment and water resources, so to use rationally every resources and raising their utilization rate is an extremely urgent thing. It is the premise and guarantees to build a harmonious society all along that to improve agricultural comprehensive production capacity for ensuring food security and the basis of stability and unity and stable development of a country. Therefore, it has very great practical significance to study the dynamic analysis and evaluation of agricultural comprehensive production capacity.This paper expounded the concept of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, it portioninged agricultural comprehensive production capacity into resource index, supporting index and effectiveness index after surveying, studying and systematic analyzing lots of information, built the integrated evaluation indexes system of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, and determined scientific evaluation method. Used theory of agro-ecological factors and agricultural sustainable development, adopted the research method that the qualitative and quantitative analysis, vertical and horizontal, analyzed the status quo of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city in Xinjiang, and proposed the countermeasures to raise the agricultural comprehensive production capacity.The paper is divided into four parts:The first part, which built the evaluation indexes system of agricultural comprehensive production capacity and evaluation methods, introduced the principle, significance and layer of building evaluation system, and described the source and access methods of index data, explained the concept of principal component analysis and its benefits on data analysis, confirmed the method and formula about determining weighting, and calculated the weighting of the index.The second part, which collected statistical data, and used regression analysis to the original data in order to avoid the volatility of values by the good times and bad, then made the data dimensionless, at last, composited agricultural comprehensive production capacity index by weighted. Through analyzing the status quo of every index of agricultural comprehensive production capacity and trends under different years, and gave the dynamic analysis and evaluation to prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city in Xinjiang according to resources security, the supporting capacity of agriculture elements and output effectiveness. By scientific research and analyzing, the result showed that the agricultural comprehensive production capacity in regions of Xinjiang kept upward trend's development, and all aspects of agriculture had also been rapid development in varying degrees. The resources index's volatility was relatively large due to policy measures and the destruction and resilience of agricultural and other comprehensive factors, and supporting index and efficiency index were steady rise, agricultural production capacity also showed a smooth rise.The third part, in which proposed strategies and measures of raising agricultural comprehensive production capacity. The first, we should strengthen the agro-ecosystems'construction, and maintain the green ecological sustainable development strategy. The second, we should increase the farm irrigation facility's infrastructure construction, which may provide the safeguard for the agricultural coordinated development in Xinjiang and production's increasing. The third, we should increase technology content of agricultural comprehensive production capacity. Because of the competition in modern agriculture was in fact the competition of the science and technological strength. It may improve effectively the working conditions of farmers and raise agricultural production capacity that only make more agricultural technology service to the people. The forth, promote market-oriented agricultural products. Only push forward agricultural products to market, it can increase in income for farmers.