The Risk Aseesment And Management Of The Safety In Subway Operation

With the acceleration of urbanization, the population is gathering, the urban subway constructions have a continuous development. Subway is an important carrier of the city transport, which is aggregating a great number of the population also facing a great risk. Subway accidents also occur frequently, causing great casualties and property losses.Based on the risk management theory, this paper analyses the risk factors in subway operation, and establishes risk assessment models from the view of man, machine, environment and management. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper assess the risk of the operations management. Because the size of risk depends on the risk probability and loss severity, considering the subway accident is a small sample of events, using the traditional probability statistical method will have a volatile situation. This paper introduces information diffusion model, making a quantitative assessment of risk probability, and base the regional and timeliness of subway, improves the spread function.When measuring the loss, because the subway accident is often accompanied by a large number of attricists.This article defines the connotation and extension of the loss, establish a unified model to measure the magnitude of the loss, from an economic point of view to measure the value of human life, and also measures the loss of equipment and time. For the specificity of subway, considering the credibility and public attitude factors, corrects the model of loss.Finally, in risk decision, by building comprehensive evaluation function, this paper combines the risk probability and loss together, and establishes a similar matrix to cluster the size of the risk through data standardization.This paper also introduces the concept of risk early warning, it designs risk indicators and analyzes time factors in decision-making. From utility theory, this article studys the attitudes of different participants toward risk, and makes a number of strategic risk management program. As the fire is the greatest risk in subway operation of, Proposes measures to prevent fire, which makes a useful discussion for the safety of the subway operation.