The Research On The Impact Of Import And Export Trade Fluctuations On Chinese Macro-economic Fluctuations

With the continuous deepened of reforming and opening up,China and the world become more closely linked. While expanding the scale of Chinese foreign trade, trade friction with major trading partners continued to increase. To maintain steady and rapid development of domestic macro-economic, we should guard against the negative impact of import and export trade fluctuations. Therefore, this paper reviews related research and discusses preliminarily the impact of import and export trade fluctuations on Chinese macro-economic fluctuations.By reading literature and collecting data, we basically understand the import and export trade and macro-economic, through analyzing existed research results, we absorb and learn the methods. According to the related theories, we describe the status about import and export trade fluctuations and Chinese macro-economic fluctuations. Data shows that since 1978, Chinese import trade and export trade are growing and domestic macro-economic is also rapidly developed, what's more, there are some correlations between import and export trade fluctuations and Chinese macro-economic fluctuations. Then we clarify the general principles of import and export trade fluctuations conducted to macro-economic fluctuations and analyze how import and export trade fluctuations affect the transmission of macro-economic fluctuations in China by the exchange rate, terms of trade, foreign aggregate demand and technology spillover. Using time series data from 1978 to 2008 and the data on the provincial side from 2001 to 2008, we analyze the empirical impact of our import and export trade fluctuations on macro-economic fluctuations. Specially, we analyze long-term and short-term impact of import and export trade fluctuations on macro-economic fluctuations by using VAR model and analyze the three regions' impact of import and export trade fluctuations on macro-economic fluctuations respectively by using panel model. At last, according to the revelation of the research, we give some suggestions on how to reduce negative impact of import and export trade fluctuations on the macro-economic fluctuations and how to maintain healthy and stable development of Chinese macro-economic.