Research On The International Trade Transmission Mechanism Of Sino-US Economic Fluctuations

In the general trend of economic globalization, most countries and areas become increasingly closer in their economic relations. It will inevitably impact on economic growth of every country. From the Angle of building a stable economy, the study is important which is about the international transmission mechanism of economic fluctuations from one country's internal through certain channels, methods and process to other countries. In this paper, it analyzes the economic relations between the United States economic fluctuations which is the most important economies and China's economic fluctuations and the international trade transmission mechanism of Sino-US economic fluctuations with the vector autoregressive models , and we obtain some beneficial inspiration from the analysis.This paper is divided into four sections. Section one (Introduction) introduces the theoretical and practical significance of this subject, provides a brief reviews of the relevant literatures both from domestic and abroad scholars, at last gives the structure of this paper and also the conclusions and the innovative point of this paper.Section two discusses the main transmission channels of the international economic fluctuations and the international trade transmission mechanism of the international economic fluctuations. The main transmission channels of the international economic fluctuations conclude international trade and international direct investment and international indirect investment. The international trade transmission mechanism concludes three ways which are export trade and import trade and structure of trade.Section three discusses the relativity of Sino-American economic fluctuation as the central topic. There are 5 economic fluctuations in China and America from 1978. The international trade have apparent effect on the China's economic since 1994. Section four first analyzes the characteristics and trends of Sino-US trade, the synchronization of the Sino-US trade and economic fluctuations and the Sino-US trade structure, and then analyzes the international trade transmission mechanism of Sino-US economic fluctuations. Chinese export to the United States is more sensitive than trade in Chinese imports from the United States in response to the Sino-US economic fluctuations.Section five analyzes the international trade transmission mechanism of the Sino-US economic fluctuations with VAR impulse response and variance decomposition method. In the long-term, the role of international trade transmission mechanism is little, and China's exports to the U.S. trade conductive play a role to a certain extent only in the short term. There are six-month lag time when Sino-US trade the conduction channel of Sino-US economic fluctuations play a significant role.Section six summarizes the analysis of the paper. Considering overall the Sino-US economic fluctuations, the synchronization is not obvious, but this trade is strengthening. The United States economic fluctuations have greater effect on China's economic fluctuations. Only Chinese exports to the United States play a role in conduction of Sino-US economic fluctuations. At the same time, we obtain some beneficial inspiration from the analysis about the relations with Sino-US economic fluctuations and the role of international trade channels to Sino-US economic fluctuations.