Empirical Analysis On Determinants Of Extending Coverage Of Basic Old-age Insurance In China

The narrow coverage is the long-term and prominent contradiction in construction of Basic Old-age insurance system In China,which is one of the major problems during reforms that must be solved in current and future. In China,Basic Old-age Insurance system was established under the background of state-owned enterprise reform,market economy development and aging of population. In afterward reforms,which is also facing a series of complex situations such as urbanization,structure of employment changing,income disparity expansion and so on. Extending coverage of Basic Old-age Insurance is a long-term and arduous duty,which has important significance for consummating China's Pesion system and constructing the harmonious society .In this paper,the author first hackled the definition,measurement of Old-age insurance coverage. Then analyzed the changing coverage during reform period and the present situation,which could help making a clear understanding of China's Basic Old-age insurance coverage. After that,the author proposed the constraints and hypotheses of extending coverage,and creatively make empirical analysis using Panel-Data Model . Also,by using two large survey data to testify those constraints and hypotheses in a microcosmic view that might further affect extending China's Basic Old-age insurance coverage. Empirical analysis demonstrate that: first, income and Social Security Subsidiary Expenses are two important and positive factors. However, the relation between income and coverage isn't simple linear, income equals to about 12000 and 25000 RMB is two policy point of important. Second, growth of informal employment is the key blocking factor of extending coverage, while the fact is that the existing Social Security System is not fitted to such form of employment. Third, enterprises and individuals are important parts of extending coverage, and individual characteristics, forms of employment, types of enterprises make deep effect to the coverage of informal employees. In the end, according to the empirical evidence, put forward the corresponding policy proposal to further consummate China's Basic Old-age insurance system.