The Research On Investment Value Of Listed Thermal Power Companies In China

China's thermal power industry is currently in a period of change. Supply and demand gap slowdown, expansion rate slowed, the coming electricity price auction and upstream pressure are the main features of this period. In 2008, coal prices soared in the first half, the electricity price was upgraded twice and the rising interest rates increased the financial costs of enterprises. In thermal power industry, some enterprises have obtained a profit rate over 20%, while some companies appeared huge losses. What kind of competitive factors brought them to such a big difference and how these factors affect the investment value of these listed companies? That is a core issue to be resolved.First, the paper uses Michael Porter's Five Forces Model to analyze China's thermal power industry. A competitive analysis concludes that supplier capabilities and the industry's inner competition are the industry's main competitive factors, both of which focus on the cost control of thermal power companies.Then, this article analyzes the company's cost, the breakdown and driving factors of the cost. A model is build to use these indicators to forecast the cost of sales ratio of a thermal power company. It is found that the average yearly coal price, the company's average unit capacity, the weighted average number of years has already been put into operation, geographical location and the average transport distance of coal-fired power together have a significant impact on the company's cost of sales ratio.Finally, back-tested using the model found that the model can be used to predict the companies'performance in the thermal power industry, which can provide investors with a reference and guidance for the investment value in the industry.