Research On The Risk Of Real Estate Investment

As a special investment projects, there are many features for real estate such as long life cycle, large quantity, immobile and vulnerable to the impact of policies, So which likely to form the cyclical, overlapping, cumulative risk. Sustained and overheated real estate investment led to the huge bubble crisis in the past, which has brought enormous risks loss to the real estate investors, and hurt regional economy even national economy. Since 2002, the real estate investment of our country has kept in rising, which led a large number of people both inside and outside to worry if the investment overheated even bubble burst. Some scholars discussed the situation, features and reasons of present real estate risk, which have their own vision and focus. In the basis of these cognition, this text try to make further analyze, consolidation and development, in order to learn the content and orientation of real estate investment risks more comprehensively and rationally. And established risk evaluation system to offer some advice in the aspect of real estate risk prevention and control.Firstly, author identified the risk which exist in the four processes which include decision-making, the early stage of development, the project construction and Rental management .Secondly, based on identifying main risks from four processes of real estate investment, author chose some appropriate indexes to design risk forecast system and forecasted the empirical real estate market condition of Chongqing. Moreover, based on the analysis of previous evaluation method such as expert evaluation, Break-Even Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Monto carlo and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, author used artificial neural network model to establish a new risk evaluation system and set 15 real estate investment projects of Chongqing as an example to evaluate the risk of real estate investment. At last, on all above, author advocated according measures to control risk from the aspect of risk prevention and risk reduction, in order to enforce the enterprises'ability of avoiding and resolving risk, to decline risk cost, and to enhance enterprises'competition.