Research On Early Warning Of Financial Crisis In IT Companies

With the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, and the gradual advance of global economic integration, IT companies in China has been rapidly developed. IT industry has become a national strategic, basic and guiding pillar industry. It stimulates economic growth, and plays an important role for the promotion of social employment and the protection of national security, it also facilitate the adjustment of industrial structure and transform the developing mode. While the dog-eat-dog market economy is pregnant with the opportunity for development, there are endless risks and crises hidden in it. The research on financial pre-warning has been cause for concern whether in academia or practitioners. As the external environment on which companies depend for existence and development is becoming more complex, companies have to face various risks in different stages of production and business activities. In recent years, as to listed companies, the situation that they are titled with "ST" plate because of financial distress grows more and more seriously. It is not only the threat to existence and development of the company failing into the financial crisis, but also brings enormous loss to investors and creditors. So to establish a financial crisis early warning index system which is based on IT industry only and covered amount of information, and build a financial pre-warning model, has become the important aspect of stabilifying the development of stockmarket, national economy, and society.On the ground of the researches by the scholars at home and abroad, firstly, this thesis talks about the definition of a financial crisis, then under the current circumstances of IT company, analyzes reasons for financial crisis. The thesis with its focus on the listed IT companies in the two stock markets, chooses four categories of indicators which includes some financial rations, the cash flow, innovation index and exterior circumstance variables. With the help of SPSS, the financial indeicatoes are carefully selected, thus indicators with significant means are chosen to establish the pre-warning system, and a financial pre-warning model is built through logistic regression analysis by SPSS. The thesis is comprised of five part:Part one introduces the background and the significance of the study, the main research methods, the main contents involved and the innovation of this thesis.Part two explains the definition and the theoetical basis of the pre-warning of it, it reviews the research findings of financial crisis case, analyzing different pre-warning methods and models.Part three under the current circumstances of IT company, analyzes reasons for financial crisis.Part four build a financial pre-warning model through logistic regression ananlysis of sample companies and test the ability to predicting accuracy of model by the use of the training samples.Part five summarize the study conclusion and suggests the further study.The results show that the model established by the methods of IT category of listed companies has some applicability. The model can provide theoretical and technical support for the company, regulators,and stakeholders. Study also clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of non-financial indicators in financial pre-warning model.