Research On Reasonable Urban Logistics Nodes Scale Planning

Logistics node is an important carrier of modern logistics, which could get economics of scale effect; decrease social logistics cost and improve the efficiency of logistics activity. Because of the guidance of national policy, some logistics nodes are blindly constructed, the constructions are lack of scientific planning, logistics node scale is unreasonable, and consequently, resources are greatly wasted. So it is necessary to study how to calculate the logistics node scale. Strictly, Logistics node scale comprises quantity of work scale, land scale and investment scale, this dissertation mainly studies the land scale of logistics nodes. In a region, the reasonable total logistics nodes scale, the reasonable amounts of logistics nodes between different level and even the reasonable scale of a single logistics nodes have to be studied.First, the concept of different logistics nodes are comprised in this dissertation, such as logistics park, logistics bases, logistics centers, distribution centers, transportation hubs, bonded, etc, to establish their level relationship.Then, after analysis the derived properties of logistics requirements and the factors which affect logistics requirements, compares the advantages and disadvantages between prediction ways, this dissertation choice the way of multiple linear regression. In order to eliminate muti-colinearity because of excessively many variables, the method of the regression of principal components analysis is used, so that the numerous correlation factors affecting cargo transport volume can be simplified to the non-correlated factor. This dissertation takes Chongqing for instance, sorting a large number of statistical data from Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2009; predict the total logistics volume in 2015. Based on the results of existing research, then combine quantitative and qualitative methods, this dissertation make a scientific forecast on total logistics nodes scale and estimate the amount of logistics park and regional logistics centers in Chongqing area.Last, this dissertation studies how to assign the total scale to a single node. Fuzzy comprehensive appraisement is used to determine the proportion of sharing. Besides, the factor of logistics volume, the factor such as the radiation area, the type of services, the timeliness requirements, the limitation of land, Land prices, the cost per unit area, the accessibility of logistics node, the connectivity of shipping channel, the fitness of road network are considered. Then, the score of each node is got, and the reasonable of each node scale could be calculated.