Research On Early Warning Of The Development Of Industrial Circular Economy In Yongxing Of Hunan Province

For a long time, the traditional mode of Economic Growth is based on environmental pollution and ecological destruction, which has threatened the sustainable development of human society. As the proposing of the concept of Scientific Development, the development of Circular Economy is more and more valued, and a suitable circular economy development model for local development has been seeking everywhere. In order to monitor the situation of circular economy development better and raise the level of development of circular economy, the early warning analysis is necessary. In this paper, the study is based on the four aspects as follows:First of all, review and Summarize the existing research on circular economy and the early warning at home and abroad, and the concept of circular economy, principles and theories and methods of early warning are described.Secondly, through the evaluation and analysis of existing early warning models, choose one as the model used in this paper:apply the fuzzy matter-element model for dynamic early warning analysis.Third, combining the actual situation of Yongxing County, analyze the industrial portfolio state of Industrial circular economy using the modified method of the Boston matrix, determine the reasonableness of the current industrial structure, make the state of industrial development of circular economy warning from the perspective of industrial portfolio.Fourth, evaluate synthetically the development of industrial circular economy through the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and draw the appropriate conclusion:In Yongxing County,the development of industrial circular economy can be divided into three phases:the phase of growth with small fluctuations during 1995-2000; the phase of rapid growth during 2000-2004; the phase of growth with volatility during 2004-2008. And forecast the development of industrial circular economy by using the GM (1.1) Grey forecasting model in the next 5 years. Study on the Early Warning of the sustainability of industrial circular economy through fuzzy matter-element method based on the statistical datas during 2000-2008 and the forecast datas during 2009-2013.Finally, according to the previous early warning analysis and evaluation, we know that there are some problems of the development of industrial circular economy as follows:the Product Structure is unreasonable, the industrial Structure is unreasonable Persons engaged in scientific and technological activities are lack, the reduction of The investment of resources and the reduction of Pollution emissions are Lagging, there is a lot of environmental pressure and Hidden danger of Environmental Protection.This paper gives some proposals of its regulation and development from the establishment of solid waste management system and evaluation system of circular economy development, building scientific and technical support platform, work well about environmental governance, building environmental monitoring platform, adjusting the industrial structure to become more reasonable, planning the development of circular economy well and so on.