Construction Of Real Estate Early Warning System And Its Complication In Beijing

ABSTRACT:The real estate industry has become the pillar industry of national economy with strong industrial relevancy and leading ability which can provide lots of employment opportunities. So the performance of it is directly related to development of national economy and even social stability. In recent years, there exists overheated investment and unreasonable housing price problems in local areas of Chinese real estate industry with the rapid development of it. Our government has introduced a number of macro-control measures to regulate the real estate industry while the afterwards control measures have brought limited effects. Therefore, combining beforehand control with processing control and afterwards control by monitoring the real estate market dynamically and forecasting future development trend to master the development situation can ensure its healthy development.The aim of this study is to provide decision reference by building real estate early warning system and applying it to Beijing based on the background above. This paper analyzes related theories of real estate early warning to confirm monitoring contents of it and build the theoretical platform. On the basis, this paper constructs real estate early warning system by choosing alarm aura indexes, diving forewarn interval, calculating weights and comprehensive warning degree and forecasting future warning degree using grey model (1,1) on the basis. Based on the index figures of Beijing real estate market from 1998 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical study of the real estate early warning system which comes to the conclusion of the overall condition and future trend. By comparing the early warning result with practical operation condition, the accuracy of the system can be tested and regulation suggestions for the real estate market have been put forward as well.