| As a non-renewable natural resource, reserves of mineral resources are limited. As the development of regions rely on mineral resource, the depletion of mineral resources will inevitably lead to major changes in regional industrial structure, but also lead to a recession in regional social economy which boomed by mining. Therefore, how to ease crisis because of "if mine dried up, region declined" in the mineral resource-based regions, and plight of "boomed by resources, declined by resources" and the protection of regional sustainable development are particularly important.Analyzing the industrial transformation's theory and practice both at home and abroad, based on the theory of sustainable development, life cycle theory and the theory of ecological compensation, for the exist problem of resource-based region's dependence on mineral resources which is ecologically fragile, based on the resource-based regional industrial development sustainability analysis to build basic framework and succeed model of ecological fragile resource-based regional industry development. Taking Zhidan County of northern Shaanxi as an example, it made empirical study. The conclusions as follow:(1) By summarizing the experience and lessons of domestic and international resource-based regional industrial development, the paper analyzed the sustainability of industrial development, which is supported by the mineral resources and renewable resources, with the guidance of industry life cycle theory. It concluded that regional industrial development was not sustainable relied on mineral resource development mainly. It also pointed out a idea of industrial succeed development, which included: to extend the resources development cycle by steady use, to adjust the industrial structure through capital transfers, to select the timing of industrial succeed in accordance with the industry life cycle.(2) Based on the analysis restriction of ecological fragility to regional industrial development, it proposed that resource-based regions of ecological fragility should carry out ecological restoration and reconstruction, succeed industry selection and cultivation for the industry to succeed; Through the analysis of spatial and temporal scales of resource-based regional sustainable development, it built analytical framework of the industrial succeed development model, and summarized regional industrial development model which included an industrial extension of vertical integration, recreating superiority of mineral resources and training non-mineral resources industrial succeed development model.(3)This paper simulated and predicted the oil production in 2009-2018 years using "S" curve line in Zhidan County. It obtained the oil industry development curve was the S-curve as 2006 year as the inflection point, as 2018 year as the peak point, and predicted oil production would continue to 2030 year. More, with qualitative and quantitative methods, it decided that the oil industry had settled into a stable stage in 2006-2007 year which was the best opportunity to industrial replacement.(4) It put forward the succeed industrial development approaches through analysis and argument in Zhidan county which is the fragile ecology and as petroleum resources as the main resource is to develop the modern agricultural industries group as the core of specialty agriculture, agricultural product processing industry; to develop the building materials industry group as the basis of clay which is used to make brick, stone and dolomite mineral resources; through integrating the regional advantages, to develop modern tourism and modern service industries. Finally, it put forward countermeasures to promote succeed industrial development of Zhidan county. |
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