| With China's rapid economic development and gradually improving capital market and financial market, the income and quality of life of Chinese urban households have been greatly improved. Residents began to seek capital appreciation and wealth investment began to be diversified. People no longer put all of money into the bank like before, so the potential consuming power of urban residents is very huge. Because car is special durable consumer goods, the choice of urban households on these durable consumer goods depends on the accumulation of family wealth which is Chinese urban residents'potential consuming power.Through the reading of the literature, I found that the measurement of potential consuming power basing on all wealth of family is not perfect and there is no one good index to measure the potential consuming power. Most people use family savings or disposable income to measure potential consuming power, but it is clear that such measurement is very unilateral. Therefore, my study will improve the measurement of Chinese urban residents'potential consuming power and put it into car market to research its impact to car demands.According to the composition of the potential consuming power of urban residents and the actual composition of household wealth, the potential spending power of urban residents will be divided into five parts to be measured in this article, including current income, deposits, stocks, bonds, and real estate. The measurement model is W=I+D+S+B+HAmong them,I is family's current income of urban residents, D represents deposits of RMB, S represents stock assets of urban residents'family, B is bond assets of urban households,H represents real estate assets of urban households. According to the survey of actual family property composition, these assets in household wealth of urban residents account for over 80%, so it can characterize the potential purchasing power of urban households more comprehensively.The current income use the monthly data of per capita total income of urban residents household in 2003 to 2008; The deposits mainly characterize month interest of saving, and assume all deposit are put into bank early, so we can use the current month multiplied by the current month deposit interest rate to calculate the current month's deposits wealth; The stock assets use monthly flow value of share market from 2003 to 2008; The data of bond assets is all bonds including foreign securities, treasury bills, treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, other financial debentures, and corporate bonds; The housing wealth use per capita by the year owned residential housing wealth plus current investment method to calculate the amount of property wealth per capita, and use urban population to convert the assets to per capita assets.According to the concept of accumulate wealth of urban households, The measurement model can be represented as, Wt=[It+ΔDt+ΔSt+ΔBt+ΔHt]+[Wt-1-Ct]I think that the sum of income, deposit interest, changes in the value of the stock wealth, changes in the value of the stock wealth, changes in the value of real estate assets, and then adding on a current value of wealth accumulated to the sum of the form after deducting period of the potential purchasing power of urban residents. The application select monthly data from 2003 to 2008, and use December 2002 as the base period to calculate potential consuming power.According to the calculation of Potential consuming power from 2003 to 2008, we can see the changes of Potential consuming power of Chinese urban residents. Overall, the potential of urban households spending power has been greatly enhanced which is similar to our former expect. However, from 2003 to October 2007, it had a the upward trend and reached the highest point in October 2007, and it had a small fall after, and then it reached another peak in January 2008, but then it dropped. This phenomenon can be explained by the changes on stock market and the country's macro-control policies. Our stock market experienced a rising and falling of the extreme changes in 2007 and 2008, and international financial crisis in 2008 also give us a complex background environment. The value of Chinese stock market has evaporated by about 20 trillion, and many policies to control the macro economic, changes in the CPI index and other factors no doubt affected the potential consuming power of urban residents in a large extent.Then, potential consuming power was put into of car market to do application, and it is mainly to see how the potential consuming power of urban residents affects demands of car market on different models. Price is another important factor to demands, so cars classified by price range would be representative of the car market including price factor:the car whose price is lower than100 thousands is the low-end car; among 100 thousands and 200 thousands is the midrange car; among 200 thousands and 300 thousands is the high-end car model; higher than 300 thousands is the high-end car model. And then we classified various car models into these four models follow this price category, and statistics monthly sales data of these four grade models based on representative car models.Next, in order to study how potential consuming power of urban residents affects the demand for different grades of vehicles, under the generalized model of SUR model form, we set the model as,Where, they are models of low-end, mid-range, high and high-end car models, W is the potential spending power of urban residents. Through regression we found that, from 2003 to 2008, potential spending power had significant influence to the demands of mid-range, high and high-end car models.which is a relationship in the same direction, and this influence on mid-range car models is more than it on high and high-end car models. Low-end car model equation was not significant, that is, the potential spending power of urban residents increased does not necessarily bring increased sales of low-end car models. However, from January 2003 to June 2005, potential consuming power's influence on demand of low-end models in is significant and it is the largest among four grade car models. And because the potential consuming power is limited at this time, the demand of high-end models have not significant influence; From July 2005 to January 2008, the potential consuming power had significant effect to demand of all four car models, but coefficient of low-end car become negative, which represents that demand of low-end models will reduce when potential consuming power increase. From February 2008 to the end of 2008, due to the substantial changes in the stock market and the global financial crisis, the estimate model lose its effective meaning, that is, existing variables in these models can not effectively explain the issues. |
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