Analyzing Local Government Fiscal Risk From Contingent Liabilities

Local government financial liability risks are hidden and uncertainty, has not aroused the Chinese people attach great importance to local governments at all levels. At present, the world is facing a new round of economic turmoil:public finance debt crisis. China is no exception.In this paper, local government financial or debt risk as the research object, according to Risk Identification-Risk assessment-risk management, the idea of local government financial or debt risk in a more detailed study.Risk identification chapter:in the relevant theory and literature review, based on self-designed survey questionnaire, conduct field interviews, in order to research the data and network data, based in Zhejiang province of local government financial or debt situation from the size and structure of two have done a more detailed investigation and analysis, which helps to deepen understanding and knowledge of the status quo; the same time, the current hot topic-the risks of local government finance platform, described in detail, and its stress tests carried out to test the conclusions of more pessimistic, and this should be a good warning to policy makers.Risk quantification chapter:learning from leading-edge financial risk management method of analysis-real options theory, the local infrastructure in the government guarantees, local financial institutions, implicit deposit insurance, local subsidies to loss-making state-owned enterprises, local public pension benefits guarantee that this four major areas of financial or debt quantified formulas were derived in detail, analyzes the influence factors, and on how to resolve this in four areas of financial or debt risk countermeasures and suggestions put forward.Risk Management chapter:the use of financial risk early warning of financial frontier of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, try to construct a local government finances consolidated debt risk warning model, and 68 sample points of Zhejiang Province empirical data analysis, empirical analysis results with the The findings are basically consistent, indicating the practicality of the early-warning model and operability, while also actively explore other risks of the strategy to prevent and resolve.