Study On The Fluctuation Of Pork Price In China

Pork price is an important index that reflects pork production and consumption. The pork price in china shows signs of cyclical fluctuations due to the influence of the laws of supply and demand. In recent years, the fluctuation cycle of pork price becomes much longer and fluctuations increase. The "cobweb model" phenomenon becomes more and more obvious. The big ups and downs in pork price greatly influence pork companies and farmers who breed pigs so the analysis on the causes of fluctuations of pork price, its laws and the factors that influence pork prices is important for the stability of pork production, increasing of livestock production as well as promoting agricultural development of the national economy.The amount of pork production and consumption in China are the highest in the world, and the changes in the price of pork are closely linked to people's lives. Therefore, there is a great deal of articles related to pork price, but no one has systematically analyzed the characteristics of the pork price fluctuations, the causes and trends. And that is what this article did.In this paper, it introduces the development of port market in china and the characteristics of its cyclical fluctuations, and then focuses on the new round of pork price fluctuation in the past two years. Finally with the help of cobweb model, we find that the pork price in china follows the law of the cobweb model. The pork market from 1996 to 2000 accords with convergence cobweb: the pork market from 2000 to 2003 accords with occlude cobweb; the pork market from 2003 to 2007 accords with divergent cobweb. And the divergent cobweb influences the pork market most greatly.Chapter III of the main article is mainly about the causes of pork price fluctuations. We apply the ridge regression model to set up the model between pork prices and their impact factors, and then analyze the impact of various factors on pork price. The results showed that: pork price is directly proportional to the CPI, per capita disposable income of urban residents, corn prices, pork production, and is inversely proportional to the population growth rate and the amount of live pigs in stock.In the forth paragraph, the paper applies ECM model to the analysis on the relationship between pork price fluctuation and inflation. The results show that rise of the prices of pork will not cause inflation, and inflation caused the rise of the pork prices. This shows that inflation has a persistent impact on pork price fluctuation. Since then, the author predicts the trend of pork price with the help of CGNN model. The results show that the pork price in 2008 will remain high throughout the year, but will begin to fall down in the second half.Finally, the article comes to a conclusion for the whole thesis, and put forward some opinions and suggestions to the healthy development of the pig farming industry.