Study On The Fluctuation Of Pork Price In China

Since the reform and open, live pig industry in our country has obtained fast development, the amount of The live hogs penned,left the penned and output of the pork exhibits a stabler growth.While the total quantity grows, as a result of the productive forces level's restriction, live pig industry's development in our country still highlighted a series of questions: scatter-feed was still the important market supplies form in live pig supply; The live pig formalization cultivation level was still low, the degree of improved variety is not high; the mechanism of the sanitation and antiepidemics Sanitation is not improvement, the live pig epidemic disease incidence rate assumes to grow and so on. Under this kind of big background, along with the letting loose of live pig market in 1985, live pig market has presented the periodic fluctuation, displayed prominently periodicity to fluctuate fiercely while pork price rise in long-term. This kind of fluctuation appeared one time every three to four years, become the most typical characteristics in our country's live pig industrial development.The fluctuations of pork price is the result of the multi-factor combined action, but supply capacity's fierce fluctuation of the live pig and the pork was still foundation reason that causes unbalanced of supply and demand in live pig market and fierce fluctuation for pork price. Especially the live pig production cost, including the price's change of the newborn pig and the feed is the important reason of pork price's fluctuation. At the same time, unexpected incidents such as live pig epidemic disease and farmer's anticipation to future market have also become the important factors to influence pork price, and this kind of influence is in recent years getting more and more remarkable.The pork substitute's influence is also not allowed to neglect.Further more, the important renson that our country's pork supply is unbalanced compared to the demand is that: In current live pig market supplie system that frees-rang is the primarily live pig supply ways, the pork output's short-term supplies elasticity is small, the long-term supplies elasticity is big, it means the pork output is slower response to the changes of pork price in short-term but is relatively sensitive response in long-term.So, in raising time about a half year, the farmer can not change the raising scale in a short time according to the market change because of cultivation cost's precipitation and asymmetric information. Thus causes the control action of the price mechanism produced a big"the time-lag effect"which became the important cause to live pig market easily to have the fierce fluctuation in our country. At the meanwhile, in view of the frequent fierce fluctuation of live pig market, the government has already formulated and released many regulation policies and measures in recent years. These policies and measures played positive role to balance the live pig market supply and demand and stable the pork price. However, these policies and measures also existence imperfect place.The regulated always be taken in the pork price peak, also belongs to passive intervention and stresses in implex production support when price in top digit movement, such as speed up the output and the supply growth of the pork through fiscal subsidy's form. But the regulation is lack of enough protects action to the pork price in trough period, so it is easy to intensify the imbalance between supply and demand. Therefore, government's regulation policies and measures is one of the reasons that cause fluctuations in live pig market and pork price.Based on above analysis, this article proposes some policy suggestions, such as safeguard the numerous sow's reasonable scale; establish regulation mechanism of forage crop; considerate to establish live pig subsidy price system and the reserve fund system; establish and perfect live pig's production and market early warning system; strengthen the poultry disease control; complete emergency procedures when suddenly the epidemic disease arises; strengthen the financial investment and regulation in live pig cultivation and so on.