Study On The Early Warning Of Scientific And Technical Investment Strength Of Agriculture In Fujian

The input level of agricultural science and technology is an important factor to measure the agricultural science and technology strength in a country or region. To achieve the strategic target of the "Western Shore Economic Zone", building a new socialist countryside, and developing the modern agriculture in Fujian province, the agricultural science and technology should play an important role, which have been calling for increasing input intensity and promoting comprehensive progresses in agricultural science and technology. To forecast the intensity of investment in agricultural science and technology of Fujian Provincial Government is to estimate and measure of the quantity of the input intensity in the future. Early warning is to predict qualitative judgments of the results, a signal should be send when the adverse effects of agricultural development had coming. This will help the government formulate and adjust the right investment policies and give the proper evaluation of their effectiveness and impact. Therefore, the paper has important practical significance and application values. Moreover, the normal warning theory is applied to the field of agricultural science and technology. The application of early-warning theory and methods is expanded, it can provide reference of the construction method of early warning systems and ideas for similar studies, therefore, there is certain of theoretical significance.In the paper, an analysis and evaluation of research situation on the agricultural early warning and the input intensity in agricultural science and technology had made, these studies pointed out the inspiration for this study and learn from. Described the theoretical basis of this study was the theory of innovation and progress of technology, new economic growth theory, the government's public choice theory, welfare and distribution theory, and economic warning, etc. Aim at the many definitions of the investment in agricultural science and technology, how to define it which was discussed in the fourth part of the paper, pointing out that this study carried out in agricultural science and technology input refers to the Government's financial investment in agricultural research institutions, where agriculture was a major concept of agriculture, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and agricultural services.Based on the above, the paper systematically analyzed the financial input of agricultural science and technology funds in the last 11 years in Fujian province. Total amount of financial investment, Fujian Agricultural Science and Technology are being progressively raised, in particular, the Government's investment in agricultural research had been rapid growth in, but there is still a large gap in the current intensity of investment of Agricultural Science and Technology of Fujian Government compared to other countries in the world, also a far gap even compared to the average level of intensity with China's agricultural science and technology investment. At the same time, an empirical evaluation of the investment performance of Agricultural Science and Technology of the Fujian provincial government had been made, the evaluation results had been obtained that Fujian Province's lack of stability and efficiency investment in agricultural science and technology. Based on the results of situation analysis and evaluation, analysis of the weaknesses and shortcomings of Fujian Agricultural Science and Technology investment policy had been made.The second half was also a key part of the paper, based on the analysis of intensity of investment in agricultural science and technology of Fujian provincial government, a number of predictive models was constructed, combined forecast had been conducted base on them and a higher prediction accuracy had been predicted. As a target reference frame, according to the average intensity level of investment in agricultural science and technology of national government, showed the early warning alarm limits, alarm district and alarm degree of the intensity of investment of Fujian provincial government agricultural science and technology, the early warning system had been formatted combined with the predicate results. The early warning results showed that, intensity of investment of agricultural science and technology of Fujian provincial government was far removed from the "Eleventh Five-Year" goal of intensity of investment in agricultural science and technology of Fujian province; At the same time, forecasting results were huge alarm that the intensity of investment in agricultural science and technology of Fujian Provincial Government between 2008-2010, in order to achieve the national average level as a target, then the "very" means must be used by the government, it may be possible by promote investment in agricultural science and technology in a "super normal" growth way.Based on the study of the preceding part, in final, a number of policy proposals were made: the promotion of investment in agricultural science and technology policy, government support must be established and improved, long-term stable guarantee mechanism of scientific and technological support must be established, a "category management" R&D and promotion funding mechanism of agricultural science and technology must be established, an investment and financing mechanisms for risk of R&D and promotion of agricultural science and technology must be actively constructed and a scientific and standardized system of statistics must be established, etc.