Research Of Operation Mechanism National Innovation System Based On System Dynamics

Since 1990s, modern science and technology revolute develop in depth and the pace of economic integration is faster, National Innovation System and National Innovative Capacity is become important bargaining chips of contesting voice in international affairs and participating in global value distribution. Therefore, the researches of operation mechanism and construction measures about National Innovation System are concerned by academia, international organizations and governments. They have made some significant research results which impacts national policy-making.Whereas, the researches on National Innovation System and National Innovative Capacity have some problems as following: focusing on static compare of integrated element but ignoring the mechanism dynamic relationships between elements and the mechanism; the relation testing between elements is not reasonable; the inscapes of National Innovation System have disordered logical relationship, which becomes double-counting.This paper researches from the analysis of operation mechanism of National Innovation System, and constructs a capacity-oriented conceptual framework for National Innovation System, after that we divided the National Innovation System into three functional modules: carrier, the environment and outputs. Based on that, we draw general causal relationship diagram of National Innovation System and test hypotheses of relationship between functional modules with the structure of RBF neural network model. Then we construct System dynamics model with the main line of the effects of government policies on innovation outputs and analyze the operation mechanism of National Innovation System.Through investigation we obtain the effects of science and technology funding, science and technology personnel, tax of enterprises, intellectual property protection level, the percentage that S&T funding and investment in higher education account for fiscal expenditure on the number of patents. We realize the relationship between elements and the operation mechanism of National Innovation System. Using the sensitivity analysis method with Monte Carlo simulation as the core, we made prediction: by 2015, funding for S&T activities will between 7100000 and 7125000 million (after discounting price impact); the number of S&T personnel will between 7.2 and 7.6 million; the number of domestic patents accepted will between 1035000 and 1050000.On this basis, I draw the road map to enhance the operating efficiency of China's National Innovation System and provide more systematic research ideas for the study of National Innovation System, at the meanwhile I provide some more focused and operational recommendations for the government to build an innovative country.