Study On The Prediction Of Land Use Change Trend In Dongpo District In Meishan City

Land use and its change are undergoing a very complicated process, which is restricted not only by natural factors, but also is intensively influenced by human factors including economy, technology, and policy etc. and with an obviously comprehensive and regional character. Therefore, To study of land-use change has great practical significance.Cellular Automata (CA) is a kind of discrete grid dynamic model, whose time, space and state are all discrete, and the spatial interaction and causality on time are completely specified in terms of a local relation. The traits of CA such as "from botton to top" approach strong complicated computing capability, inherent parallel computing capability, highly dynamic characteristic and spatial concept,etc., have made it very strong on spatial-temporal evolution modelling of the complex system. CA has shown thoroughly the essence of complexity science that "the complicated structure comes from the interaction of the simple subsystem". So CA is suitable to study complex spatial-temporal geographic system, and it has been an important tool and research focus for regional land use modeling.Firstly, based on the information of various land-use types acreage and their spatial distributions in Dongpo District, Meishan City in the year of 1996 and 2005, land-use transiton matrix and adjacency matrix were got through GIS spatial overlaying analysis and the statistical function of FRAGSTATS. And the two matrixs were combined to study the land-use transition trend of Dongpo District from 1996 to 2005. The results indicated:①all the land-use types were in the trend of keeping steady,②construction land had very strong counteractive reversibility and stability, but the land nearby in other use types were in the trend of transition into construction land intensively,③there's no trend for construction land transforming into cultivated land , woodland or grass. In the end, not only was the model evaluated, but also its application scope was defined.Then, based on the Cellular Automata Model and the three assumed planning targets of Dongpo district government, three plannings were put forward. Under the precondition of sufficient data mining and the transformation rules of transferring Multi-elements to CA-Markov, the amount and space changes of land utilization in Dongpo district in 2011 was simulated according to the three plannings. The results indicated that for protection of basic farmland and the sloping land conversion, the devloping model of the third planning was the the best, in which both land consolidation and the city developing direction were considered. According to the comparation of the state of land utilization in 2006 and the amount and spatial evolution of land utilization in Dongpo district in 2011 under the third planning, corresponding policy measures were put forward.