Simulation Of Land Use Change Under Different Scales

Since entering the 21 st century,the contradiction between the development of human society and the decreasing land resources has become more prominent.How to solve the effective use of land and rationally plan land resources has become a hot topic in the current study.First,taking the Three Gorges reservoir area as the study area,and using the land use data of the 2000 and 2010 phases of the area and the selected 10 driving factors as source data,a land use dynamic change model based on CART-CA was constructed;Five kinds of different resolution data were simulated to find the best simulation scale,and the scale conversion problem was evaluated and analyzed.After reaching the optimal simulation scale of 300×300m,in order to explore the factors related to the optimal simulation scale,the classification equilibrium and multi-scale analysis of the land category were analyzed.The DYNA-CLUE model and the Logistic-CA model were used to compare the best simulation scale with the CART-CA model to test the effect of the model.Finally,different future development scenarios were designed to predict the land use change in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in 2020.The human disturbance index and the ecological risk index were used to analyze the ecological effects and provide suggestions for future development of land use in the Three Gorges reservoir area.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:1.Five different simulation scales were selected.The ROC curve was used to obtain the best simulation scale of the study area.The best simulation scale was 300×300m.The CART-CA model was used to simulate at five scales.The results show that the simulation effect is best at the 300×300m scale.2.Five different neighborhood window sizes were set up for simulation experiments.It was found that the simulation accuracy was greatly influenced by the neighborhood window,and the optimal neighborhood window for the simulation of land use changes in the Three Gorges reservoir area was 3×3.At the same time,it is found that the two driving factors of elevation and slope have the greatest impact on land use types.In reducing the amount of calculations,data volume,model training costs,and ensuring simulation results,it is reasonable to select the first five driving factors with high influence to simulate.3.At different scales,the CART-CA model is compared with the DYNA-CLUE model and the Logistic-CA model.The results show that the CART-CA model is higher than the Logistic-CA model in 200 x 200 m,300 x 300 m,500 x 500 m,800 x 800 m and 1000 x 1000 m.The overall Kappa is 2.3%,1.9%,1.9%,1.8% and 2% higher than the DYNA-CLUE model,which is higher than the Kappa,1.1%,1.2%,0.9%,and 2% higher than the DYNA-CLUE model,indicating CART-C.The A model has certain advantages over the other two models in the simulation effect.4.The analysis of the geographical balance and multi-scale classification of the land types were conducted.Experiments were conducted on five scales and four classification schemes.The results showed that there was an inverse relationship between the equilibrium and the evaluation values,that is,the equilibrium was increased.Instead,the value dropped.5.This thesis uses 2010 as the base year,under different development scenarios to simulate the 2020 land use changes in the Three Gorges reservoir area.Judging from the forecast results under the inertial development scenario,the direction of land use change is basically the same from 2000 to 2010.Through the analysis of land use structural information entropy,the land of the Three Gorges reservoir area during the 20 years from 2000 to 2020 Use the structure to show more and more stable trends.