Study On Prediction Of Development Of Sinopec's Refined Oil Long-distance Pipeline

Pipeline transport is one of the rising means of transportation in our country. It is of greater advantages than other transportation conveyances. Mileage of refined oil pipeline is a significant indicator in the development of all-product pipeline. In the feasible study of pipeline construction, how to apply proper predict methods to forecast the mileage is of great significance.Through the analysis of development of Sinopec refined oil pipeline, this paper demonstrated that refined oil pipeline in our country is in the state of growth stage and also find out the competitive advantages, disadvantages and core-competitiveness via Michael Porters Five Forces Model, value chain and SWOT tools etc..In this paper, modern prediction technique and conventional prediction technique are combined. Using exponential smoothing, linear regression and GM(1,1)II model, the mileage of 2009 to 2015 of China Petrochemical Industry's pipeline are predicted. The analysis of the results indicates this predict method is proper and efficient. The result of prediction shows that Sinopec's refined oil pipeline is entering the stage of accelerating development, reaching 27,000 kilometers in 2015.Based on the result of prediction, this paper macroscopically analyzed the principle of development on Sinopec 's refined oil long-distance pipeline, general thought, programming and distribution and proposed several suggestions of the development of long-distance pipeline.