Long-distance Pipeline Safety Investment Method Research And Prediction

Long-distance pipeline is a kind of important transport carrier, It is the main way of oil and gas transmission. In order to run the long-distance pipeline normally, avoid and prevent disaster accidents and reduce casualties and property losses, safety maintenance, security management to long distance pipeline, especially the safety investment to long distance pipeline, are getting more and more attention in the petrochemical enterprises all over the world in recent years; They have put forward a lot of safety investment analysis methods and theories whose aim is trying to make security investment more scientific and reasonable and then reduce all kinds of accidents and property losses as much as possible. However, all kinds of evaluating methods of safety investment are neither mature nor perfect .So further and in-depth research and analysis for long distance pipeline safety investment method are necessary.The paper expands research work to the safety investment methods from the current situation of long-distance pipelines . There is a best point in the safety investment itself. First, find out the best point in safety investment of long-distance pipelines, and then plan to establish a feasible optimized model of the long-distance pipeline for safety investment. Safety investment is not a blind investment, and the amount of investment also is limited. How to maximize the effect of the limited investment and obtain best returns from the limited investment, we need a optimal distribution of several major elements of safety investment Analyze the importance of the elements of safety investment, and resorting them according to their importance; Allocate the elements of safety investment according to the order. Appling some methods of economics to safety investment domain, evaluating it with Net Present Value Method and Internal Rate of Return Approach, and we could make a better decision for safety investment when combining the advantages of the two approaches. Determine the scope of investment to long-distance pipeline for enterprise preliminarily, minimize the hazard and make casualties and property losses to the lowest; Improve the economic and social benefits and create the greater increase in earnings for the enterprise. And on this basis, further analyze the safety investment of long-distance pipeline. Discuss it thoroughly with linear regression analysis and least-square method. Make quantitative analysis of safety investment in pipeline with linear regression method, and make a fitting line by the values such as safety of investment ,casualties and property losses with the least square method. The fitting line could predict the effect of safety investment more accurately. It can provide effective evaluation methods and reference index for enterprise in the process of making plan on safety investment and reducing accident losses as well as a reference and guidance when the enterprise management make decisions of safety investment in the future.