Brief Discussion Of The Revision Of The New Overall Plan For The Land Utilization

This article carries on the review and the analysis through the land-use program pres ent situation,the progress,the existence question of domestic and foreign research,and p rogramming land space according to the concept of scientific development.In the predece ssor research and the practice foundation,profits from the advanced experience overseas, combines our country truth,proposed the elasticity multilevel model which the target cont rolling combined with the adjusted dynamic target of county level land utilization overall plan.Through the review and analysis of our country first two round land utilization p lan,the existence question which the previous round land utilization plan obtains has bee n discovered;and the analysis has been carried on utilizes the qualitative forecast law a nd the mathematical model forecast.Then we select the grey system theory GM(1,1) modeling to forecast.Take Jiaonan as an example,it has conducted the empirical study i n the county level land utilization plan.The main research conclusion as follows:(1) Some questions such as the singleness plan goal,poorly scientific,exact plan ma nagement implementation,the decision-making mechanism waited for consummating,the p ublic participates in questions were insufficiency,has been discovered in the second roun d land utilization overall plan,so that we can repair all the problems in the new round plan.(2) It has a very close relationship between GDP and the construction land,with the rapidly increases of GDP,the GDP of unit area construction land will be to rise,that is to say,the investment of the unit area construction land will intensity increases graduall y.(3) The dynamic programming plan change the formerly mentality and method whic h the multi-plans chose a synergy,and carried out irrevocably the static programming,ma nifest the dynamic "the elasticity" and "the rigidity" the unionized spirit.The dynamic pr ogramming plan goal is only one year,but the plan carries out probability to be many. Every plan carried out through the evaluation target to judge respectively whether to tran sform,and it will enhance the accuracy of the forecast plan and the reliability of the lan d target adjustment.(4) Through the analysis appraisal to each mathematical model forecast technique,it proves that the method of gray system GM(1,1) in the present stage land utilization ov erall plan is better.Moreover,the establishes GM(1,1) model will be found many ti mes from available residual,to enhance GM(1,1) the model forecast precision,which may approach the best forecast precision.The superiority of the approach is the result ac curacy test method which other methods do not have.This article has certain originality in the dynamic programming plan's connotation an d gray system GM(1,1) in the forecast model's utilization.