Resource-based Cities Development Based On System Dynamics And Empirical Study

Resource-based cites are developed with the development and use of natural resources,are also the products of industrialization and the urbanization.In the entire national city community,the population and resources output value of resource-based cites hold the quite great proportion in the nation.It is a kind of important and special city type. At present some resource-based cites have already entered the mature mining period and the resources depletion time,the individual city have exhausted its resources and have already fell into the difficult development position with very prominent contradictory between economy and society.Therefore,it is day by day urgent and essential to research the development of resource-based cites.Located at the Chinese western,Geermu city is abundant in natural resources.It is the economical center in chaidamu basin also will be the promised city and hold the important position in Qinghai Province at present and the future.At present,it is still in the sumptuous mining time.Therefore,it is the necessary to discuss its future development; Geermu must derive the successful experiences and defeat's lesson from the domestic and foreign exhausted cities to prepare for a rainy day.This article have used system dynamics to carry on the simulation and forecast under the sustainable development theory,the circular economy theory and the system theory, Geermu must consider to reasonable use of the resources and the development,the transformation of traditional ideas,enhance the efficient use in future development,thus reduce to the environment pollution,pay much attention to the first and third industry to guarantee healthy development of the urban economy,enlarge investment to the technology and education,and promote an quicker city developing.The concrete contents are:present research on domestic and foreign resource-based city,the main theoretical knowledge,the definition and classification of the resource-based city,the system dynamics model for Geermu city developing,and carry on the confirmation to the model.The article designed three kinds of city developing pattern on the model:natural development model, economical high speed development model,under the circular economy and sustainable theory instruction's development model,and through chance some policy-type variable to carry on the simulation to these three kind of patterns.Finally carries on the contrastive analysis to three kind of pattern's analogue results,discovers the most suitable plan to the Geermu city developing and put forward some proposals and measures in view of the present situation.In brief,this article have used the system dynamics method to carry on the simulation analysis to Geermu's city developing through investigating,inquiring related statistical data, have established three kinds in view of the Geermu city developing,has carried on the operation and the solution to the model,through the analysis and contrast,have discovered the most suitable plan to Geermu urban development.Finally,have put forward some proposals and measure in view of these questions.