Study On Coordination State And Evolving Trend Of Railway And Highway Cargo Transportation System

China has proposed the strategic goal that we must establish a scientific development concept of comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable to promote all-round development of economy and society on Central Committee of the CCP 16 session of Third Session. This strategy gives a new requirement for cargo transport system in our country. Especially for the land-based cargo transport system which contains railway subsystem and highway subsystem, they are the most important cargo mode in China. Therefore, it has an extremely important significance on how to coordinate the railway and highway cargo transport, make them realize each other's advantages and complement so as to promote China's future transportation system.This paper gives an in-depth analysis and research on the overall coordination status, the coordination degree, the evolving trend of the system with railway and highway cargo transport based on the system theory. First of all, it analyzes the favorable policy and constraint factors on the cargo system of railway and highway. And then gives an overall measure on the coordination state from the angle of transport lines, vehicles and cargo turnover. Secondly, it studies the specific coordination degree of railway and highway cargo transportation on the basis of the overall measure, and analyzes the dynamic change of coordination degree. Furthermore, it gives an analysis on the evolving trend and the impact of changing coordination degree on the evolution trend with introducing coordination degree into the mathematical model of coordination. Finally, it concludes the coordination development strategy based on the full-text.This article has the following innovation value. First, it measures the overall coordination status based on grey system GM model which carries out to verify and supplement for traditional qualitative analysis. Further more, it calculates the coordination degree based on the improved DEA model, which expands the exploration to the research on coordination degree. Above all, it applies the coordination degree on the mathematical model of coordination, which provides a realistic way to determine the impact coefficients of synergy.