Simulation Of Chinese Land Use Conversion Between 2010 And 2025

With the improvement of China's urbanization level and the increasingly prominent problems among population, resources and environment, research on land use conversion has become one of the forefront and hot topics. And the simulation of land use conversion, which is based on the laws of changes in land use and the assumptions of the function of natural and socio-economic conditions, infers the future state of land use conversion and provides a good basis for land-use policies.Land use changes along with the changes of driving factors, so the key to reveal land use conversion is to grasp the dynamic driving force factors. In order to seek the impacts of the driving force factors on the land-use types, the driving force model of China's land use conversion is first constructed in this paper. Since the socio-economic driving force factors play a more prominent role in the conversion of land use in the short term, the paper then takes a brief outlook of the trends of important socio-economic driving force factors including China's population, urbanization level and agricultural investment etc. in 2010-2025. On this basis, the paper designs the scenarios of the simulation of China's land use conversion in 2010-2025 which is mainly divided into the baseline scenario and policy scenario (including environmental conservation scenario, bio-energy development scenario and agricultural subsidies scenario) and each divides into high, medium and low program. Lastly, taking every 5 years as a time interval, it predicts the replacement laws of China's various land types in 2010-2025 in various scenarios under each program using DLS model, and the simulation results are shown in the nine sub-areas under the 10 km grid level.Comparing the simulation results of China's land use conversion among baseline scenario, environmental conservation scenario, bio-energy development scenario and agricultural subsidies scenario, different replacement laws of land types in different scenarios can be obviously displayed. The trends of land use conversion of Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall area, Huang-Huai-Hai area and the Loess Plateau area change significantly in the baseline scenario and environmental conservation scenario, while the basic state of the northeastern area does not change significantly and is in a stable in each scenario. The trends of land use conversion of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area and Ganxin area differ largely from other areas in bio-energy development scenario; and trends of land use conversion of Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall area, Huang-Huai-Hai area, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area and Ganxin area differ slightly from other areas in agricultural subsidies scenario.According to the simulation results, the main countermeasures should be as follows:①To ensure that the dynamic equilibrium of the total area of cultivated land strictly,②To arrange built-up area reasonably and to economize on land,③To achieve the changes of land use patterns from extensive type to intensive one,④To constitute scientific land development planning,⑤To strengthen public participation and to establish social supervision mechanism of land management.