Forecaste The Air Cargo And Mail Traffic And Analyze The Influence Factors At Pearl River Delta

Based on the model of gray system theory,we forecasted the air cargo traffic at Pearl River Delta and analyzed the long-time influence factors.First,we expatiated on the elements of GM(1,1) model and grey relate degree analysis of gray system theory, then,the feasibility in the field of civil aviation portfolio forecasting has been demonstrated.Second,we introduced the current situation of the development of air logistics at Pearl River Delta,and pointed out the localization of it.Third,we set up a short-time trend model using the datum of the air cargo traffic in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 2003 to 2007.Based on this model,we forecasted the air cargo traffic of Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2008 which are 747000 tons and 705000 tons respectively.Based on these studies,we found out the short-time trend of the air cargo traffic at Pearl River Delta,which will be growing in the next three years.Finally, using Delphi method and grey relate degree analysis,we concluded that the three indexes which influence the long-time trend of the air cargo traffic at Pearl River Delta are gross product of Guangdong province,gross product per capita of Guangzhou and Shenzhen,and aircraft movement of Guangzhou and Shenzhen airports.We suggest that we should forecast the long-time trend of the air cargo traffic at Pearl River Delta by monitoring the long-time trend of high correlated economy indexes.These results of this paper will be a rounded and scientific reference for improving the carrying capacity of air cargo traffic at Pearl River Delta effectly.