| Land prices are the most sensitive and representative elements of the land market system and important lever which are controlled land market by government. With the rapid growth of the real estate market, land prices have become the core problem which community highly concerned about. Housing land prices are the equilibrium point of the economic interests between the supply-side and demand-side, also are the focus of people concerned about. At present, most research about housing land prices are based on statistics or experience to determine the method which are lack of interaction between many factors and spatial expression. Therefore, this thesis, based on combination of time and space to explore the level of housing land prices, set up the new idea of space-time based on dynamic prediction method of the housing land price.This thesis takes Jinan for an example. After summarizing the related theories and methods of System Dynamics and GIS spatial analysis, the author combines the time simulation and the space simulation use the space-time conception model. First, based on analyzing the factors which impact on the housing land prices, the author analysis the relationship of elements, identify model parameters and equations, build a SD model of housing land prices and test the model. Then, the author creates Digital Land Price Model with the geo-statistical analysis on the platform of ArcGIS, the time distribution and the space distribution are combined successfully. This thesis chiefly includes several aspects as follows:At first part, the background, the meaning and the purpose of thesis are firstly made clear, and then the present study and practice at home and abroad are briefly reviewed. At the end of this part, the author shows the study thought and the structure frame of the full text. At second part, the author introduces the basic theory of System Dynamics and the process to structure SD model. Based on analyzing the factors which impact on the housing land prices, the author makes a time distribution model using the System Dynamics software----Powersim, which has powerful functions. At third part, the author introduces the basic theory of GIS and the steps of creating Digital Land Price Model, and then creates the DLPM of Jinan. The forth part analyses the space-time evolutionary results of Jinan's housing land prices. Finally, the author briefly sums up the major conclusions of the thesis, gives some advise and assume in future.This thesis follows the characteristics of emphasizing structural analysis of the traditional system dynamics, emphasize the measure of steric factor in model structure, select the appropriate space concept, combine the spatial analysis of GIS and dynamic simulation of SD, and describe, analyze and simulate the complex and space-time system. This thesis solves the problem of space-time simulation of Jinan's housing land prices and provides a new technological route for the study of land prices. |
