A Study On The Effect Of American Business Cycle On Chinese Business Cycle

In the world today,China is increasingly influenced by the global economic integration and regional economic integration.The world economy is an organic whole.In an open economy and market economy,a country's business cycle fluctuations will be transmitted to another country through the international trade,international financial markets and so on.The United States is the world's largest developed economy entity,and China is the world's largest developing economy country,the American economy and China's economy has always been a hotspot in the academic circle.We study the transmission effect with the U.S.business cycle and China's business cycle and It's significant for the China's economic to find out what impact China's economic development in the new normal.This essay,from the international trade transmission,makes a comparative analysis between China and the United States of the current development of the economic and trade relationship,the trade structure and the industrial structure,the exchange rate system and so on,focuses on the analysis of the impact of U.S.business cycle fluctuations on the China's business cycle through the international trade.On the international trade transmission research,we adopt the structural vector autoregressive model which is widely used for the analysis of international business cycle,and analyze the international trade transmission effects of U.S.business cycle.The research shows that it is obvious the transmission effect of U.S.business cycle fluctuations on the China's business cycle through the international trade,especially the gross domestic product,real direct investment,exchange rate and the industrial structure.In view of this,we propose some policy recommendations to reduce the negative impact of the external business cycle fluctuations on China's economy through the international trade base on the current problems about foreign trade in our country.