The Study Of Risk Decision And Risk Pre-warning On Agile Logistics

Under the background of economic globalization,and market competition is day by day intense,on one hand enterprises need to reduce prices and dealing with the competition from intra-industry competition, on the other hand the average cost has been increased constantly. For this reason, enterprises seek to break through under such a widespread predicament. Therefore, known as " the third profit source", under the demonstration effects of successful enterprises, Logistics attracting more and more widespread attention and on a global scale to flourish after several decades of development from 1950.Agile Logistics is the concrete application in the field of logistics of Agile Manufacturing. Because customer demand has become individualized and diversified, the appearance and upgrading of new technology has become faster, the life cycle of the products has become shortened, so the competitive environment that enterprises face is changing constantly, difficult to predict. The purpose to implement Agile Logistics is for tackling constantly changeable competitive environment, realize the cost's reduced and the efficiency's optimized, reach the equilibrium between low cost, high efficiency, customer satisfaction, instead of the pursuit of the individual index .Agile Logistics is especially suitable for emphasizing the changeable, uncertain market of complex reaction time and service.The source of Agile Logistics is Agile Manufacturing, nevertheless, Agile Logistics appear relatively short period of time, at present, the current research literature of Agile logistics is not many, particularly agile logistics of a late start in China,the literature of study on Agile logistics of China are still insufficient.Agile Logistics does not pursue the low cost or high efficiency unilaterally, but direct against the actual needs of enterprises, optimization and grouping to every key factor , therefore have very strong adaptability and vitality. The study on Agile Logistics, for this reason,it have highly innovative. Launch of various fields research to Agile Logistics, can offer reference for thelogistics course of enterprises.This thesis analyze the intension, characteristic of Agile Logistics, discern andjudge the risk of Agile Logistics, construction of Agile Logistics of Multi-Objective Flexible Risk Decision-Making System, Real Options Theory are used for the analysis of Agile Logistics' Risk Decision-Making process. Management, Economics, Risk Management, Statistics and Real Options Theory are used in this thesis.This thesis discusse the system of Agile Logistics's risk management, use Statistics method,Real Options method,Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method,analyzed and optimized risk decision-making process of Agile Logistics, the early warning index system of risk management and concrete content of the early warning system. Finally, the author combining some case to study on the Risk Prevention of Agile Logistics enterprises, and proposed Risk Precautionary measures of some common risks' precautionary and risk management tactics in the operation course of logistics.