Research On Comprehensive Risk Pre-warning System For Credit Guarantee Institutions

The development of SMEs made a great contribution to the rapid and stable development of economy,expand employment,increase the income of residents and so on in China Since reform and opening up. In 1993, the State departments set up the first credit guarantee company(China Economic and Technological Investment Guarantee Corporation) in order to promote the development of small and medium enterprises rapidly and stably, aimed at resolving the "financing difficulty" problem which the small and medium enterprises faced generally; However, various kinds of supporting facilities are lacking as credit guarantee is young in china, ,combined with the inadequate social credit system has led to the credit guarantee organizations faced with many risks when operating. So how to control the risks effectively have a great significance for the lasting operating to the credit guarantee institutions; and also directly related to the credit guarantee agencies can better provide financing services to small and medium enterprises development. This article is based on the early warning system of risk for the credit guarantee agency.Corporate finance is the main business for credit guarantee agencies in china at present. So the great risk for credit guarantee agencies comes from SMEs and bank; On the one hand, if the enterprise is unable to repay bank loans on schedule for various reasons, the credit guarantee agencies must carry out the compensatory; On the other hand, because of guarantees toke by the credit guarantee agency, the bank can take the loans to enterprises directly without more consideration, by that way the risk of the financing divert to the credit guarantee agencies, so the SMES and bank will be have a great enthusiasm to the financing as the credit guarantee agencies take the risk. The theory of financial transactions proved the point of that view. When credit guarantee agencies taking the risk management, the following measures will be used: risk compensation mechanism, mechanism for risk transfer, internal control mechanisms and risk early warning mechanism. The different size of credit guarantee agencies in the risk management mechanism for choosing have a larger difference, in general, large-scale security agencies by virtue of its financial strength and management experience through business combinations varieties, the compensation in full extraction of the risk reserve. With the bank to share the risk in areas such as risk diversification, and small and medium-sized credit guarantee institutions in the security measures to spread the risks of choice with some limitations.In this paper, credit guarantee mechanism of early warning of the risks for the credit guarantee agency to look into the issue of risk management mechanisms for different sizes of the credit guarantee institutions have a certain amount of reference. First of all, the use of information asymmetry and adverse selection and moral hazard, and other related theories of credit and credit guarantee security risk arising from the process conducted in-depth analysis, summed up the credit guarantee agencies face major risks and their characteristics; review of the current domestic credit guarantee Institutions in risk management facing major difficulties as well as the measures taken, from early warning methodology of risk management point of view in a special domestic economic environment, credit guarantee institutions carry out effective risk management. The author of this article build a comprehensive risk evaluation index system and the application of the law on expert system targets of various indicators of empowerment, constitute a comprehensive credit guarantee agency risk assessment model with the experiences in a credit guarantee agencies in Shenzhen, as well as the communicated with the experts in this field. From international financial institutions risk early warning system, building a secured credit risk early warning mechanism for a comprehensive risk assessment model to be worth the risk to the security agencies to carry out the risk of early warning; select the gray prediction method to build a comprehensive risk prediction model for credit guarantee agencies.