Systematic Risk Measurement And Early Warning Analysis Of The Banking Industry

For a long time,the banking industry has been an important part of the financial industry,and its capital volume is huge.According to the 2018 wind statistics,banking assets accounted for 77.7%in the total financial industry s asset's,which is important pillar in Chinese real economy.Therefore,the normal operation of the banking industry is related to the stability of the entire national economy.At present,through the divestiture of non-performing assets and upgrading of banks,Chinese banking industry has greatly improved its own asset quality and risk control capabilities.However,due to the structural adjustment of the traditional industry and the slowdown of domestic economic growth,the non-performing loan ratio of banks has increased and credit risks have increased,which creates the probability of systemic risks in the banking industry increased.Therefore,how to eliminate outdated production capacity and promote industrial upgrading in the context of supply-side structural reform,and in this process,put forward scientific methods and implementation plans,so as not to bring systemic risks to the banking industry,which is an important theoretical basis for maintaining the banking system stability.In the current economic environment,the paper focuses on this subject,included systemic risk measurement and early warning of banking industry.By reading a large number of literature,clearing up the connotation and characteristics of systemic risk in banking industry,in-depth analysis of the influencing factors and transmission mechanism of systemic risk in banking industry,the five transmission channels of systemic risk in the banking industry have been integrated and analyzed,and the methods of the risk assessment and model of risk system for early warning in the banking have been studied.The main research contents are as follows:firstly,combining with the overall background of supply-side structural reforms,three indicators were selected to synthesize the systemic risk index BRI(Banking Risk Index)of the banking industry,which used to measure systemic risks in the banking industry.We can obtain the trend of BRI indicator result changing with time and analyze whether the period of sharp fluctuation of the indicator is consistent with the real economic situation.Secondly,based on Chinese current national conditions and from the perspective of supply-side structural reforms,establishing a set of early warning indicator systems that can reflect the actual status of systemic risks in Chinese banking industry.Chinese banking industry is affected by multiple economic and political environments at home and abroad.This paper selects 21 indicators based on scientific and reasonable principles,which are mainly divided into five categories:real economy,macro economy,financial market,international environment and banking system.Under the background of supply-side structural reform,the indicators of four representative industries of steel,coal,cement and real estate should be included in the five major systems.Thirdly,the main factors selected from the 21 indicators after principal component analysis are used as independent variables,and BRI indicators are used as dependent variables.Using the logit probability model,the systemic risk warning of the banking industry is analyzed.The results show that among the 21 indicators,the increase in GDP year-on-year growth rate,non-performing loan rate,unemployment rate,social fixed asset investment growth rate,and M2 growth rate will increase systemic risks in the banking industry.The increase in cement PPI and investment efficiency growth will reduce systemic risks in the banking industry.According to the logit probability regression result,the probability distribution map of systemic risk in the banking industry is obtained,and it is found that the result is consistent with the measurement result of the BRI indicator,and both results are fitted with the actual economic development status.