Research On Reliability Assessment Based On Bayesian Methods

With the increasing competition in the market, high quality products were more and more demanded. As one of the most important characters of the high quality products, reliability had been increasingly paid attention to. In this paper, Bayesian methods were applied in product reliability assessment, which could identify the weak points of products and implement product reliability growth.First of all, the significance and review of product reliability assessment were described. Various methods about unit reliability assessment and system reliability assessment were compared respectively, and their strengths and weaknesses were analyzed, and then the advantage of Bayesian methods in reliability assessment was explained.And then, the reliability assessment of mechanical product was implemented using Bayesian methods, followed by present research results. The assessment processes of abrasion units and over-loading units were respectively explained in detail, and the point estimation and interval estimation of reliability parameters and reliability characters were obtained. The assessment algorithm was implemented by numerical analysis, and an example was introduced to validate the feasibility of the preceding methods. Then, support vector machines was used to integrate mechanical system reliability in order to obtain system prior distribution. According to the prior distribution and other experiment information, the final results of system reliability were gained. An example was introduced to validate the feasibility of the methods.Finally, the architecture and function modules of the prototype system about product reliability assessment were built. The software was developed using Java technology, and some application examples were presented.