| With the continuous development of our economy, our country has occurred in many countries of the world economic ties, and the degree of economic cooperation has been deepening the economic relations with other countries more closely.As a result of labor, capital, economic resources, such as trade of goods between countries in the world continue to flow, mutual penetration, making the resources configured in the world. Thus was formed the economic development of countries in the world the extent of mutual influence the deepening of the degree of dependence among countries rising.Under such circumstances, economic exchanges between different countries as the currency exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate become the focus of constant attention.In recent years, as people in-depth study of the exchange rate issue, the exchange rate imbalance in the beginning of our attention, which is the reality of the real exchange rate level is often caused by deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate generated. Misalignments of exchange rates as a result of long-term operation of the real economy will have a negative impact, so the equilibrium exchange rate to determine a reasonable level of macroeconomic regulation and control of our government has an important significance.In this paper, reference to the theory of equilibrium real exchange rate, in accordance with the theoretical model of equilibrium exchange rate behavior, the establishment of the RMB to China's national conditions for a balanced model of the real exchange rate is estimated; Cointegration analysis of the use of econometric techniques, such as the RMB to China's level of equilibrium real exchange rate estimates and analysis, and further analysis of the imbalance of China's RMB exchange rate, as well as with the correlation between China's import and export of China's exchange rate policy-related suggestion.The first chapter in this article, first of all, according to China's international trade development, as well as the general experience of the RMB exchange rate system a few times, combined with China's economic and political environment, the study made on the cause of the problem; Secondly, the academic community both at home and abroad through the RMB real exchange rate on the dislocation of research results and experience, this paper argues that for the current economic characteristics of China's real exchange rate equilibrium is the act of thinking of the equilibrium exchange rate theory, which fully take into account the equilibrium exchange rate within naturally, that the long-term equilibrium real exchange rate decision is the real economy, the basic economic factors in a series of variables, the results of measurements more in line with the actual economic situation; Finally, according to this article involved the concept of some of the exchange rate, reviewing, mainly contribute to the understanding of background knowledge.Chapterâ…¡introduced the acts of systematic theory of the equilibrium exchange rate model, combined with China's actual economic situation, select a group of line with China's actual economic fundamentals, build the following model of the real exchange rate of RMB Equilibrium:Among them, REER is the real effective exchange rate of RMB which is the balance that the real exchange rate, PROD is expressed in labor productivity by GDP per capita, M2 is the money supply in China, NFA which is China's net foreign assets, TOT is the total value of exports and imports in value; OPEN is the ratio of the total terms of trade, expressed in the import and export value is the ratio of total GDP of openness . According to theoretical analysis, raising labor productivity, the increase in net assets abroad will be balanced so that the rising real exchange rate, but the actual increase in money supply or to increase the openness, the terms of trade will be balanced to improve the decline in the real exchange rate. The use of cointegration analysis, error correction model and the HP filter method to estimate China's equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB on the basis of the level, according to the real exchange rate of RMB real exchange rate and balance the difference between the equilibrium real exchange rate and the exchange rate to achieve the level of dislocation.Based on estimated results of the analysis, we found that labor productivity, net foreign assets, money supply, trade conditions and the openness of the actual balance of the RMB exchange rate basically consistent with the theoretical analysis.Chapterâ…¢of the previous chapter we dislocation on the exchange rate of the estimation results, and the establishment of import and export VAR model, using cointegration analysis of the measurement method, to analyze China's real exchange rate of RMB and China's import and export between the dislocation correlation. First of all, the exchange rate of dislocation and the import, export area of the number of unit root test and found that all first-order single whole; Secondly, to carry out Granger causality test, is not Granger caused MIS and LNCKRSA probability LNJKRSA were 25.93% and 39.91%, so to accept the original hypothesis; At the same time as a result of LNCKRSA and LNJKRSA not Granger cause the probability of MIS were 98.96% and 39.37%, it also accepts the original assumptions. This conclusion is to some extent, indicators and analysis of the previous line, that is, the RMB real exchange rate in the mild over-estimate the long-term export and import does not have a significant impact; Finally, impulse response function to the wrong estimation of exchange rate changes on the extent of the impact of imports and exports, according to the impulse response plans, this analysis we can show that the exchange rate impact of a dislocation will be exported, the export market of the impact of reverse , but in the long term is not very obvious.Chapterâ…£, in accordance with previous results of the analysis, combined with the current economic situation, the adjustment of China's exchange rate policy recommendations. Firstly, establishing the RMB exchange rate target zone: the one, any exchange rate target zone than you can enhance the independence of our monetary policy, the flexibility of exchange rate policy can improve the efficiency of monetary policy is conducive to the achievement of internal macroeconomic balance, but not too much by external factors; the other the establishment of the RMB exchange rate target zone can enhance the flexibility of China's exchange rate policy, the effectiveness of the exchange rate policy to increase the central bank greater autonomy and flexibility, while maximizing the use of the public in "the prevention of psychological," to enhance the effectiveness of policy interventions. Secondly, improve the RMB exchange rate mechanism:(l) to improve foreign exchange management system, enhance the function of the foreign exchange market; (2) To build a harmonious and efficient system of financial supervision and management of macroeconomic, financial markets of various kinds of effective supervision in order to control financial risks. (3) to actively resolve the economic system of excess liquidity. China's economic system of excess liquidity is the role of factors internal and external results. |
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